Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st Congressional District boundaries by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas in counties such as Mendocino and Sonoma while removing conservative strongholds, producing a Solid Democratic rating from multiple forecasters and an implied partisan lean of roughly D+7 to D+11. State Sen. Mike McGuire advanced alongside Rep. James Gallagher from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from incumbency advantages in the new map, established name recognition, and alignment with the district's updated voter base. Gallagher secured the short-term special election seat under prior boundaries but faces structural headwinds in November. Trader consensus pricing reflects these compositional changes, with limited realistic pathways for reversal absent major late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals, significant scandals, or turnout anomalies outside historical patterns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$35,037 交易量
$35,037 交易量
2026-11-02
Mike McGuire（民主黨）
97%
詹姆斯·加拉格爾（共和黨）
3%
$35,037 交易量
$35,037 交易量
2026-11-02
Mike McGuire（民主黨）
$26,310 交易量
97%
詹姆斯·加拉格爾（共和黨）
$8,727 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st Congressional District boundaries by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas in counties such as Mendocino and Sonoma while removing conservative strongholds, producing a Solid Democratic rating from multiple forecasters and an implied partisan lean of roughly D+7 to D+11. State Sen. Mike McGuire advanced alongside Rep. James Gallagher from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from incumbency advantages in the new map, established name recognition, and alignment with the district's updated voter base. Gallagher secured the short-term special election seat under prior boundaries but faces structural headwinds in November. Trader consensus pricing reflects these compositional changes, with limited realistic pathways for reversal absent major late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals, significant scandals, or turnout anomalies outside historical patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$35,037結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st Congressional District boundaries by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas in counties such as Mendocino and Sonoma while removing conservative strongholds, producing a Solid Democratic rating from multiple forecasters and an implied partisan lean of roughly D+7 to D+11. State Sen. Mike McGuire advanced alongside Rep. James Gallagher from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from incumbency advantages in the new map, established name recognition, and alignment with the district's updated voter base. Gallagher secured the short-term special election seat under prior boundaries but faces structural headwinds in November. Trader consensus pricing reflects these compositional changes, with limited realistic pathways for reversal absent major late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals, significant scandals, or turnout anomalies outside historical patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,037結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRedistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 1st Congressional District boundaries by incorporating more Democratic-leaning areas in counties such as Mendocino and Sonoma while removing conservative strongholds, producing a Solid Democratic rating from multiple forecasters and an implied partisan lean of roughly D+7 to D+11. State Sen. Mike McGuire advanced alongside Rep. James Gallagher from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from incumbency advantages in the new map, established name recognition, and alignment with the district's updated voter base. Gallagher secured the short-term special election seat under prior boundaries but faces structural headwinds in November. Trader consensus pricing reflects these compositional changes, with limited realistic pathways for reversal absent major late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals, significant scandals, or turnout anomalies outside historical patterns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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