Recent polling and election-night projections for Berlin’s September 20 state election placed Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at 14–16 percent, consistent with surveys throughout the final weeks that showed modest declines from their 2023 result amid gains for Die Linke and the AfD. Exit polls and early counts aligned closely with that band, reinforcing trader consensus around the 14–17 percent interval. Final certified figures could shift marginally once all absentee and mail ballots are tallied, though historical patterns indicate limited movement beyond the current range. A surprise surge in turnout among core urban or younger voters, or unusually large discrepancies in late counting, remain the principal variables that could still alter the outcome.