Recent pre-election polling and exit surveys placed the CDU at 19–21 percent for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus vote, down sharply from its 28 percent result in the 2023 repeat election. Low satisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition’s handling of housing costs, combined with the mid-campaign replacement of top candidate Kai Wegner by Stefan Evers, contributed to the slide. The Linke’s surge to the low-to-mid 20s and steady AfD support further compressed the CDU’s share. These consistent survey trends across multiple institutes produced strong trader consensus around the 17–20 percent band. Late shifts in turnout or counting adjustments remain the main variables that could move the final certified figure outside that range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於17-20% 98.0%
小於17% 1.6%
23%+ 1.4%
20-23% <1%
$34,628 交易量
$34,628 交易量
2026-09-20
小於17%
2%
17-20%
98%
20-23%
1%
23%+
1%
17-20% 98.0%
小於17% 1.6%
23%+ 1.4%
20-23% <1%
$34,628 交易量
$34,628 交易量
2026-09-20
小於17%
$9,675 交易量
2%
17-20%
$10,604 交易量
98%
20-23%
$9,664 交易量
1%
23%+
$4,685 交易量
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent pre-election polling and exit surveys placed the CDU at 19–21 percent for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus vote, down sharply from its 28 percent result in the 2023 repeat election. Low satisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition’s handling of housing costs, combined with the mid-campaign replacement of top candidate Kai Wegner by Stefan Evers, contributed to the slide. The Linke’s surge to the low-to-mid 20s and steady AfD support further compressed the CDU’s share. These consistent survey trends across multiple institutes produced strong trader consensus around the 17–20 percent band. Late shifts in turnout or counting adjustments remain the main variables that could move the final certified figure outside that range.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
交易量
$34,628結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent pre-election polling and exit surveys placed the CDU at 19–21 percent for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus vote, down sharply from its 28 percent result in the 2023 repeat election. Low satisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition’s handling of housing costs, combined with the mid-campaign replacement of top candidate Kai Wegner by Stefan Evers, contributed to the slide. The Linke’s surge to the low-to-mid 20s and steady AfD support further compressed the CDU’s share. These consistent survey trends across multiple institutes produced strong trader consensus around the 17–20 percent band. Late shifts in turnout or counting adjustments remain the main variables that could move the final certified figure outside that range.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$34,628結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETRecent pre-election polling and exit surveys placed the CDU at 19–21 percent for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus vote, down sharply from its 28 percent result in the 2023 repeat election. Low satisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition’s handling of housing costs, combined with the mid-campaign replacement of top candidate Kai Wegner by Stefan Evers, contributed to the slide. The Linke’s surge to the low-to-mid 20s and steady AfD support further compressed the CDU’s share. These consistent survey trends across multiple institutes produced strong trader consensus around the 17–20 percent band. Late shifts in turnout or counting adjustments remain the main variables that could move the final certified figure outside that range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions