The high implied probability for "No" reflects the current fiscal trajectory, with the FY2026 deficit projected near or above $2 trillion by the Congressional Budget Office—larger than recent baselines after accounting for timing shifts. Key drivers include the revenue effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax provisions and sharply lower tariff collections following the Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act authorities, which reduced expected customs duties by roughly $250 billion. Outlays have risen due to entitlement growth, debt service costs exceeding $1 trillion annually, and limited offsets from rescissions or other measures. Administration officials have discussed further consolidation plans ahead of midterms, yet the scale of enacted policies and structural spending pressures make a meaningful year-over-year reduction before 2027 unlikely under prevailing estimates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật7% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
7% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.The high implied probability for "No" reflects the current fiscal trajectory, with the FY2026 deficit projected near or above $2 trillion by the Congressional Budget Office—larger than recent baselines after accounting for timing shifts. Key drivers include the revenue effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax provisions and sharply lower tariff collections following the Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act authorities, which reduced expected customs duties by roughly $250 billion. Outlays have risen due to entitlement growth, debt service costs exceeding $1 trillion annually, and limited offsets from rescissions or other measures. Administration officials have discussed further consolidation plans ahead of midterms, yet the scale of enacted policies and structural spending pressures make a meaningful year-over-year reduction before 2027 unlikely under prevailing estimates.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,076Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.The high implied probability for "No" reflects the current fiscal trajectory, with the FY2026 deficit projected near or above $2 trillion by the Congressional Budget Office—larger than recent baselines after accounting for timing shifts. Key drivers include the revenue effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax provisions and sharply lower tariff collections following the Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act authorities, which reduced expected customs duties by roughly $250 billion. Outlays have risen due to entitlement growth, debt service costs exceeding $1 trillion annually, and limited offsets from rescissions or other measures. Administration officials have discussed further consolidation plans ahead of midterms, yet the scale of enacted policies and structural spending pressures make a meaningful year-over-year reduction before 2027 unlikely under prevailing estimates.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Khối lượng
$3,076Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability for "No" reflects the current fiscal trajectory, with the FY2026 deficit projected near or above $2 trillion by the Congressional Budget Office—larger than recent baselines after accounting for timing shifts. Key drivers include the revenue effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax provisions and sharply lower tariff collections following the Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act authorities, which reduced expected customs duties by roughly $250 billion. Outlays have risen due to entitlement growth, debt service costs exceeding $1 trillion annually, and limited offsets from rescissions or other measures. Administration officials have discussed further consolidation plans ahead of midterms, yet the scale of enacted policies and structural spending pressures make a meaningful year-over-year reduction before 2027 unlikely under prevailing estimates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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