Recent diplomatic drafts in late October 2026 propose transferring Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile to a third country or reducing enrichment levels under IAEA supervision, paired with sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar-mediated talks in Doha continue amid these outlines, with China eyed as a potential guarantor. Iranian officials have rejected any physical transfer, stating no enriched material will leave the country. US demands, including calls from Vice President JD Vance for meaningful capacity cuts, remain tied to verifiable steps before easing restrictions. Limited IAEA access persists since prior strikes on facilities, while Iran reinforces sites and maintains NPT commitments without resuming full inspections. These verified developments shape trader assessments of timelines for any US acquisition of the material.