US extended deterrence commitments, NPT obligations, and IAEA safeguards continue to shape allied security calculations, with recent debates in capitals such as Seoul, Tokyo, and Warsaw reflecting hedging discussions rather than active breakout programs. No verifiable evidence indicates any US ally maintains the infrastructure, fissile material production, or political authorization needed to field an operational nuclear weapon in the remaining months of 2026. The compressed timeframe to 2027 reinforces trader consensus around the “No” outcome, as weaponization timelines typically span years even under accelerated conditions. Late developments such as an unforeseen crisis prompting rapid policy reversal or disclosure of a covert advanced program could theoretically alter probabilities, though both remain remote given ongoing alliance coordination and verification mechanisms.