Mike Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the Utah 4th congressional district race, with traders assigning his Republican candidacy a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+14 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins this consensus. Redistricting shifted Kennedy from the 3rd district into this seat after incumbent Burgess Owens retired, and Kennedy secured the nomination unopposed at the Republican convention while raising over $800,000. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen, a Marine veteran, advanced without primary opposition but trails significantly in fundraising and faces limited name recognition in a district Donald Trump carried by 32 points in 2024. A major national Democratic midterm surge, unexpected scandal, or health-related development could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUT-04 House Election Winner
UT-04 House Election Winner
$42,280 KL.
$42,280 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Kennedy (R)
95%
Jonny Larsen (D)
4%
$42,280 KL.
$42,280 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Kennedy (R)
$16,189 KL.
95%
Jonny Larsen (D)
$26,091 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the Utah 4th congressional district race, with traders assigning his Republican candidacy a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+14 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins this consensus. Redistricting shifted Kennedy from the 3rd district into this seat after incumbent Burgess Owens retired, and Kennedy secured the nomination unopposed at the Republican convention while raising over $800,000. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen, a Marine veteran, advanced without primary opposition but trails significantly in fundraising and faces limited name recognition in a district Donald Trump carried by 32 points in 2024. A major national Democratic midterm surge, unexpected scandal, or health-related development could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$42,280Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the Utah 4th congressional district race, with traders assigning his Republican candidacy a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+14 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins this consensus. Redistricting shifted Kennedy from the 3rd district into this seat after incumbent Burgess Owens retired, and Kennedy secured the nomination unopposed at the Republican convention while raising over $800,000. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen, a Marine veteran, advanced without primary opposition but trails significantly in fundraising and faces limited name recognition in a district Donald Trump carried by 32 points in 2024. A major national Democratic midterm surge, unexpected scandal, or health-related development could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$42,280Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Mike Kennedy holds a commanding lead in the Utah 4th congressional district race, with traders assigning his Republican candidacy a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+14 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, underpins this consensus. Redistricting shifted Kennedy from the 3rd district into this seat after incumbent Burgess Owens retired, and Kennedy secured the nomination unopposed at the Republican convention while raising over $800,000. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen, a Marine veteran, advanced without primary opposition but trails significantly in fundraising and faces limited name recognition in a district Donald Trump carried by 32 points in 2024. A major national Democratic midterm surge, unexpected scandal, or health-related development could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election.
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