**The Tongatapu 2 by-election, set for 8 October 2026, follows the Supreme Court’s upholding of bribery and campaign-spending convictions against former MP and minister Semisi Sika, who is barred from contesting for five years.** This created an open seat in the Nuku’alofa-area constituency after Sika’s 2025 victory over ‘Uhilamoelangi Fasi. Nine independent candidates registered in early September, including Samiuela Vea, Sione Harvard Tupouniua, Mounu Uaisele, Alvin Lafu Sika, Mele Teusivi ‘Amanaki, Malakai Matafonuafo’ou ‘Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi, ‘Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila, ‘Olioni Manoa, and others. With no dominant frontrunner and all candidates drawing from overlapping village networks in Kolofo’ou, Haveluloto, Fanga-‘o-Pilolevu and surrounding areas, trader probabilities remain tightly clustered. The short campaign window, reliance on personal endorsements and local turnout, and absence of party structures limit rapid shifts, though late endorsements or candidate withdrawals could consolidate support and widen gaps before polling.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSione Harvard Tupouniua 39%
Alvin Lafu Sika 31%
Samiuela Vea 31%
Mounu Uaisele 28%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua
39%
Alvin Lafu Sika
31%
Samiuela Vea
31%
Mounu Uaisele
28%
Lei Paasi
27%
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi
24%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki
24%
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila
23%
'Olioni Manoa
16%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua 39%
Alvin Lafu Sika 31%
Samiuela Vea 31%
Mounu Uaisele 28%
Sione Harvard Tupouniua
39%
Alvin Lafu Sika
31%
Samiuela Vea
31%
Mounu Uaisele
28%
Lei Paasi
27%
Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi
24%
Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki
24%
'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila
23%
'Olioni Manoa
16%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Thị trường mở: Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**The Tongatapu 2 by-election, set for 8 October 2026, follows the Supreme Court’s upholding of bribery and campaign-spending convictions against former MP and minister Semisi Sika, who is barred from contesting for five years.** This created an open seat in the Nuku’alofa-area constituency after Sika’s 2025 victory over ‘Uhilamoelangi Fasi. Nine independent candidates registered in early September, including Samiuela Vea, Sione Harvard Tupouniua, Mounu Uaisele, Alvin Lafu Sika, Mele Teusivi ‘Amanaki, Malakai Matafonuafo’ou ‘Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi, ‘Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila, ‘Olioni Manoa, and others. With no dominant frontrunner and all candidates drawing from overlapping village networks in Kolofo’ou, Haveluloto, Fanga-‘o-Pilolevu and surrounding areas, trader probabilities remain tightly clustered. The short campaign window, reliance on personal endorsements and local turnout, and absence of party structures limit rapid shifts, though late endorsements or candidate withdrawals could consolidate support and widen gaps before polling.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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