Chiang Wan-an, the Kuomintang incumbent, holds an 84.5% implied probability in the Taipei mayoral market due to consistent polling leads of 25-30 points over DPP challenger Puma Shen and broad support across districts. His re-election bid benefits from established city governance record, rising personal approval ratings, and Taipei’s historical preference for KMT candidates in local races. Shen, a first-term legislator and Kuma Academy co-founder sanctioned by Beijing, has focused campaign efforts on housing, transport, and international outreach but trails significantly in head-to-head surveys released through September. Minor candidates such as Kuo Hsi register negligible shares. With the November 28 election two months away, trader positioning aligns with these structural and survey dynamics rather than late momentum shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtChiang Wan-an 85%
Puma Shen 16.1%
Kuo Hsi <1%
$100,709 KL.
$100,709 KL.
Jun 30, 2027
Chiang Wan-an
85%
Puma Shen
16%
Kuo Hsi
<1%
Chiang Wan-an 85%
Puma Shen 16.1%
Kuo Hsi <1%
$100,709 KL.
$100,709 KL.
Jun 30, 2027
Chiang Wan-an
$52,114 KL.
85%
Puma Shen
$48,012 KL.
16%
Kuo Hsi
$583 KL.
<1%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chiang Wan-an, the Kuomintang incumbent, holds an 84.5% implied probability in the Taipei mayoral market due to consistent polling leads of 25-30 points over DPP challenger Puma Shen and broad support across districts. His re-election bid benefits from established city governance record, rising personal approval ratings, and Taipei’s historical preference for KMT candidates in local races. Shen, a first-term legislator and Kuma Academy co-founder sanctioned by Beijing, has focused campaign efforts on housing, transport, and international outreach but trails significantly in head-to-head surveys released through September. Minor candidates such as Kuo Hsi register negligible shares. With the November 28 election two months away, trader positioning aligns with these structural and survey dynamics rather than late momentum shifts.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 14, 2026, 8:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$100,709Ngày kết thúc
Nov 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 8:24 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chiang Wan-an, the Kuomintang incumbent, holds an 84.5% implied probability in the Taipei mayoral market due to consistent polling leads of 25-30 points over DPP challenger Puma Shen and broad support across districts. His re-election bid benefits from established city governance record, rising personal approval ratings, and Taipei’s historical preference for KMT candidates in local races. Shen, a first-term legislator and Kuma Academy co-founder sanctioned by Beijing, has focused campaign efforts on housing, transport, and international outreach but trails significantly in head-to-head surveys released through September. Minor candidates such as Kuo Hsi register negligible shares. With the November 28 election two months away, trader positioning aligns with these structural and survey dynamics rather than late momentum shifts.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Khối lượng
$100,709Ngày kết thúc
Nov 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 14, 2026, 8:24 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Chiang Wan-an, the Kuomintang incumbent, holds an 84.5% implied probability in the Taipei mayoral market due to consistent polling leads of 25-30 points over DPP challenger Puma Shen and broad support across districts. His re-election bid benefits from established city governance record, rising personal approval ratings, and Taipei’s historical preference for KMT candidates in local races. Shen, a first-term legislator and Kuma Academy co-founder sanctioned by Beijing, has focused campaign efforts on housing, transport, and international outreach but trails significantly in head-to-head surveys released through September. Minor candidates such as Kuo Hsi register negligible shares. With the November 28 election two months away, trader positioning aligns with these structural and survey dynamics rather than late momentum shifts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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