The U.S. military's continued success with its all-volunteer force, including record recruiting performance in fiscal 2025 that exceeded targets across services, underpins trader consensus against draft authorization in 2026. No legislation has advanced to activate conscription, which would require separate congressional passage and presidential approval beyond routine measures like the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automatic Selective Service registration update. Political resistance remains high given public opposition and the preference for professional forces. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden, large-scale manpower shortfalls in a major escalation involving adversaries such as China or intensified regional conflicts, though current conditions show no such trigger.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật4% khả năng
$525,568 KL.
$525,568 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
4% khả năng
$525,568 KL.
$525,568 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. military's continued success with its all-volunteer force, including record recruiting performance in fiscal 2025 that exceeded targets across services, underpins trader consensus against draft authorization in 2026. No legislation has advanced to activate conscription, which would require separate congressional passage and presidential approval beyond routine measures like the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automatic Selective Service registration update. Political resistance remains high given public opposition and the preference for professional forces. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden, large-scale manpower shortfalls in a major escalation involving adversaries such as China or intensified regional conflicts, though current conditions show no such trigger.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Khối lượng
$525,568Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. military's continued success with its all-volunteer force, including record recruiting performance in fiscal 2025 that exceeded targets across services, underpins trader consensus against draft authorization in 2026. No legislation has advanced to activate conscription, which would require separate congressional passage and presidential approval beyond routine measures like the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automatic Selective Service registration update. Political resistance remains high given public opposition and the preference for professional forces. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden, large-scale manpower shortfalls in a major escalation involving adversaries such as China or intensified regional conflicts, though current conditions show no such trigger.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$525,568Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The U.S. military's continued success with its all-volunteer force, including record recruiting performance in fiscal 2025 that exceeded targets across services, underpins trader consensus against draft authorization in 2026. No legislation has advanced to activate conscription, which would require separate congressional passage and presidential approval beyond routine measures like the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act's automatic Selective Service registration update. Political resistance remains high given public opposition and the preference for professional forces. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden, large-scale manpower shortfalls in a major escalation involving adversaries such as China or intensified regional conflicts, though current conditions show no such trigger.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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