Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi energy and military targets, coupled with broader Iran-related tensions, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25 commodity vessels per day—below the recent 27-ship average—while many operators continue Cape of Good Hope rerouting. This pace projects to roughly 175–189 ships for the week of September 7, supporting the narrow edge for the 170–189 bin over 190–209. Selective tanker activity (Aframax and Suezmax units) persists where cargo economics justify the operational hazards and elevated war-risk premiums, but container and general cargo flows remain limited. Daily volatility from AIS gaps, protective measures, and shifting threat levels creates the tight contest between the leading outcomes, with resolution hinging on whether security incidents intensify or ease through mid-month.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?
170-189 41%
190-209 40%
<170 9.0%
210-229 7%
$38,353 KL.
$38,353 KL.
Sep 13, 2026
<170
9%
170-189
41%
190-209
40%
210-229
7%
230+
5%
170-189 41%
190-209 40%
<170 9.0%
210-229 7%
$38,353 KL.
$38,353 KL.
Sep 13, 2026
<170
$14,012 KL.
9%
170-189
$566 KL.
41%
190-209
$738 KL.
40%
210-229
$1,549 KL.
7%
230+
$21,488 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi energy and military targets, coupled with broader Iran-related tensions, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25 commodity vessels per day—below the recent 27-ship average—while many operators continue Cape of Good Hope rerouting. This pace projects to roughly 175–189 ships for the week of September 7, supporting the narrow edge for the 170–189 bin over 190–209. Selective tanker activity (Aframax and Suezmax units) persists where cargo economics justify the operational hazards and elevated war-risk premiums, but container and general cargo flows remain limited. Daily volatility from AIS gaps, protective measures, and shifting threat levels creates the tight contest between the leading outcomes, with resolution hinging on whether security incidents intensify or ease through mid-month.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Thị trường mở: Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Khối lượng
$38,353Ngày kết thúc
Sep 13, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi energy and military targets, coupled with broader Iran-related tensions, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25 commodity vessels per day—below the recent 27-ship average—while many operators continue Cape of Good Hope rerouting. This pace projects to roughly 175–189 ships for the week of September 7, supporting the narrow edge for the 170–189 bin over 190–209. Selective tanker activity (Aframax and Suezmax units) persists where cargo economics justify the operational hazards and elevated war-risk premiums, but container and general cargo flows remain limited. Daily volatility from AIS gaps, protective measures, and shifting threat levels creates the tight contest between the leading outcomes, with resolution hinging on whether security incidents intensify or ease through mid-month.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Khối lượng
$38,353Ngày kết thúc
Sep 13, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi energy and military targets, coupled with broader Iran-related tensions, have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 25 commodity vessels per day—below the recent 27-ship average—while many operators continue Cape of Good Hope rerouting. This pace projects to roughly 175–189 ships for the week of September 7, supporting the narrow edge for the 170–189 bin over 190–209. Selective tanker activity (Aframax and Suezmax units) persists where cargo economics justify the operational hazards and elevated war-risk premiums, but container and general cargo flows remain limited. Daily volatility from AIS gaps, protective measures, and shifting threat levels creates the tight contest between the leading outcomes, with resolution hinging on whether security incidents intensify or ease through mid-month.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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