Recent polling from mid-2026 shows a competitive contest for Piauí’s two Senate seats, with Marcelo Castro (MDB) frequently leading narrowly ahead of Júlio César (PSD) and Ciro Nogueira (PP) amid large blocs of undecided voters. Traders appear to view Júlio César as the likeliest second-place finisher due to his positioning in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios and lower rejection levels compared with Ciro Nogueira. Castro’s incumbency and alignment with Governor Rafael Fonteles provide a base, while Ciro’s higher negative ratings and separate party dynamics limit his implied probability for the runner-up spot. Lula’s September 9 visit to Teresina reinforced support for the Castro–Júlio César pairing without disrupting broader understandings involving Ciro. With roughly three weeks until the October vote and persistent high undecided shares, small shifts in turnout or late campaign momentum among the top three could alter second-place ordering.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPiauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Julio Cesar 35.1%
Marcelo Castro 29.0%
Ciro Nogueira 15%
Tiago Junqueira 5.5%
$42,854 KL.
$42,854 KL.
Julio Cesar
35%
Marcelo Castro
29%
Ciro Nogueira
15%
Tiago Junqueira
5%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Julio Cesar 35.1%
Marcelo Castro 29.0%
Ciro Nogueira 15%
Tiago Junqueira 5.5%
$42,854 KL.
$42,854 KL.
Julio Cesar
35%
Marcelo Castro
29%
Ciro Nogueira
15%
Tiago Junqueira
5%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Major Paulo Roberto
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Pastor Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-2026 shows a competitive contest for Piauí’s two Senate seats, with Marcelo Castro (MDB) frequently leading narrowly ahead of Júlio César (PSD) and Ciro Nogueira (PP) amid large blocs of undecided voters. Traders appear to view Júlio César as the likeliest second-place finisher due to his positioning in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios and lower rejection levels compared with Ciro Nogueira. Castro’s incumbency and alignment with Governor Rafael Fonteles provide a base, while Ciro’s higher negative ratings and separate party dynamics limit his implied probability for the runner-up spot. Lula’s September 9 visit to Teresina reinforced support for the Castro–Júlio César pairing without disrupting broader understandings involving Ciro. With roughly three weeks until the October vote and persistent high undecided shares, small shifts in turnout or late campaign momentum among the top three could alter second-place ordering.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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