Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently places Otzma Yehudit at 6–9 seats, implying a national vote share clustered near 5–7.5 percent and supporting trader consensus on the 5.5–6.5 percent band. Primary drivers include sustained support among right-wing voters and Ben-Gvir’s early-September addition of a Haredi candidate to broaden appeal beyond the party’s traditional base. Reciprocal disqualification petitions filed by the Democrats and Otzma Yehudit have drawn attention but are widely viewed as long shots unlikely to alter ballot access. Minor list adjustments and competition within the broader right-wing bloc for seats have introduced modest volatility, yet the range of recent surveys leaves the middle outcome probabilities highest while underscoring uncertainty around final turnout and surplus-vote agreements.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật4.5-5.5% 30%
7.5%+ 26%
5.5-6.5% 24%
<4.5% 22%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
18%
4.5-5.5%
30%
5.5-6.5%
20%
6.5-7.5%
14%
7.5%+
26%
4.5-5.5% 30%
7.5%+ 26%
5.5-6.5% 24%
<4.5% 22%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
$26 KL.
18%
4.5-5.5%
$153 KL.
30%
5.5-6.5%
$112 KL.
20%
6.5-7.5%
$139 KL.
14%
7.5%+
$335 KL.
26%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently places Otzma Yehudit at 6–9 seats, implying a national vote share clustered near 5–7.5 percent and supporting trader consensus on the 5.5–6.5 percent band. Primary drivers include sustained support among right-wing voters and Ben-Gvir’s early-September addition of a Haredi candidate to broaden appeal beyond the party’s traditional base. Reciprocal disqualification petitions filed by the Democrats and Otzma Yehudit have drawn attention but are widely viewed as long shots unlikely to alter ballot access. Minor list adjustments and competition within the broader right-wing bloc for seats have introduced modest volatility, yet the range of recent surveys leaves the middle outcome probabilities highest while underscoring uncertainty around final turnout and surplus-vote agreements.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Thị trường mở: Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$765Ngày kết thúc
Oct 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently places Otzma Yehudit at 6–9 seats, implying a national vote share clustered near 5–7.5 percent and supporting trader consensus on the 5.5–6.5 percent band. Primary drivers include sustained support among right-wing voters and Ben-Gvir’s early-September addition of a Haredi candidate to broaden appeal beyond the party’s traditional base. Reciprocal disqualification petitions filed by the Democrats and Otzma Yehudit have drawn attention but are widely viewed as long shots unlikely to alter ballot access. Minor list adjustments and competition within the broader right-wing bloc for seats have introduced modest volatility, yet the range of recent surveys leaves the middle outcome probabilities highest while underscoring uncertainty around final turnout and surplus-vote agreements.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Khối lượng
$765Ngày kết thúc
Oct 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently places Otzma Yehudit at 6–9 seats, implying a national vote share clustered near 5–7.5 percent and supporting trader consensus on the 5.5–6.5 percent band. Primary drivers include sustained support among right-wing voters and Ben-Gvir’s early-September addition of a Haredi candidate to broaden appeal beyond the party’s traditional base. Reciprocal disqualification petitions filed by the Democrats and Otzma Yehudit have drawn attention but are widely viewed as long shots unlikely to alter ballot access. Minor list adjustments and competition within the broader right-wing bloc for seats have introduced modest volatility, yet the range of recent surveys leaves the middle outcome probabilities highest while underscoring uncertainty around final turnout and surplus-vote agreements.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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