The dominant 91.5% implied probability of no Gemini Pro release by September 30 stems from Google's lack of official announcements, teasers, or confirmed timelines for a new large language model version in recent weeks. Major AI labs typically align launches with earnings calls, developer events, or competitive benchmarks, none of which align with the final days of September 2026. Historical spacing between Gemini updates and the current competitive landscape with models from OpenAI and Anthropic further support trader consensus that a surprise drop is improbable. A credible leak, unexpected regulatory filing, or last-minute partnership announcement could still alter positioning before month-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo release by September 30 92%
September 29 3.2%
September 30 3.2%
September 22 3.0%
$117,576 KL.
$117,576 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 20
1%
September 21
2%
September 22
3%
September 23
2%
September 24
3%
September 25
1%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
<1%
September 29
3%
September 30
3%
No release by September 30
92%
No release by September 30 92%
September 29 3.2%
September 30 3.2%
September 22 3.0%
$117,576 KL.
$117,576 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 20
$312 KL.
1%
September 21
$562 KL.
2%
September 22
$594 KL.
3%
September 23
$479 KL.
2%
September 24
$604 KL.
3%
September 25
$308 KL.
1%
September 26
$310 KL.
1%
September 27
$312 KL.
1%
September 28
$527 KL.
<1%
September 29
$538 KL.
3%
September 30
$888 KL.
3%
No release by September 30
$102,006 KL.
92%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.The dominant 91.5% implied probability of no Gemini Pro release by September 30 stems from Google's lack of official announcements, teasers, or confirmed timelines for a new large language model version in recent weeks. Major AI labs typically align launches with earnings calls, developer events, or competitive benchmarks, none of which align with the final days of September 2026. Historical spacing between Gemini updates and the current competitive landscape with models from OpenAI and Anthropic further support trader consensus that a surprise drop is improbable. A credible leak, unexpected regulatory filing, or last-minute partnership announcement could still alter positioning before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Khối lượng
$117,576Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.The dominant 91.5% implied probability of no Gemini Pro release by September 30 stems from Google's lack of official announcements, teasers, or confirmed timelines for a new large language model version in recent weeks. Major AI labs typically align launches with earnings calls, developer events, or competitive benchmarks, none of which align with the final days of September 2026. Historical spacing between Gemini updates and the current competitive landscape with models from OpenAI and Anthropic further support trader consensus that a surprise drop is improbable. A credible leak, unexpected regulatory filing, or last-minute partnership announcement could still alter positioning before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$117,576Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The dominant 91.5% implied probability of no Gemini Pro release by September 30 stems from Google's lack of official announcements, teasers, or confirmed timelines for a new large language model version in recent weeks. Major AI labs typically align launches with earnings calls, developer events, or competitive benchmarks, none of which align with the final days of September 2026. Historical spacing between Gemini updates and the current competitive landscape with models from OpenAI and Anthropic further support trader consensus that a surprise drop is improbable. A credible leak, unexpected regulatory filing, or last-minute partnership announcement could still alter positioning before month-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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