Google’s repeated delays on the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship, first teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July, remain the dominant factor behind the 43.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model has stayed in limited partner testing without a public launch or firm timeline, while Google has instead shipped frequent Flash variants—including 3.8 Flash in early September—and begun pre-training on Gemini 4. Traders appear to weigh Google’s history of conservative flagship pacing and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic as signals that a near-term Pro debut is unlikely, with any October window hinging on an unexpected acceleration in testing or a surprise announcement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo release by November 1 38%
October 12–October 18 16%
September 28–October 4 15.0%
September 21–September 27 6.1%
$42,656 KL.
$42,656 KL.
Sep 13, 2026
September 7–September 13
3%
September 14–September 20
4%
September 21–September 27
6%
September 28–October 4
15%
October 5–October 11
3%
October 12–October 18
16%
October 19–October 25
6%
October 26–November 1
3%
No release by November 1
38%
No release by November 1 38%
October 12–October 18 16%
September 28–October 4 15.0%
September 21–September 27 6.1%
$42,656 KL.
$42,656 KL.
Sep 13, 2026
September 7–September 13
$1,349 KL.
3%
September 14–September 20
$400 KL.
4%
September 21–September 27
$541 KL.
6%
September 28–October 4
$506 KL.
15%
October 5–October 11
$373 KL.
3%
October 12–October 18
$749 KL.
16%
October 19–October 25
$427 KL.
6%
October 26–November 1
$451 KL.
3%
No release by November 1
$36,568 KL.
38%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship, first teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July, remain the dominant factor behind the 43.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model has stayed in limited partner testing without a public launch or firm timeline, while Google has instead shipped frequent Flash variants—including 3.8 Flash in early September—and begun pre-training on Gemini 4. Traders appear to weigh Google’s history of conservative flagship pacing and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic as signals that a near-term Pro debut is unlikely, with any October window hinging on an unexpected acceleration in testing or a surprise announcement.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$42,656Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays on the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship, first teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July, remain the dominant factor behind the 43.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model has stayed in limited partner testing without a public launch or firm timeline, while Google has instead shipped frequent Flash variants—including 3.8 Flash in early September—and begun pre-training on Gemini 4. Traders appear to weigh Google’s history of conservative flagship pacing and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic as signals that a near-term Pro debut is unlikely, with any October window hinging on an unexpected acceleration in testing or a surprise announcement.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$42,656Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Google’s repeated delays on the Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship, first teased at I/O in May 2026 with a June target that slipped past July, remain the dominant factor behind the 43.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by November 1. The model has stayed in limited partner testing without a public launch or firm timeline, while Google has instead shipped frequent Flash variants—including 3.8 Flash in early September—and begun pre-training on Gemini 4. Traders appear to weigh Google’s history of conservative flagship pacing and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic as signals that a near-term Pro debut is unlikely, with any October window hinging on an unexpected acceleration in testing or a surprise announcement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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