Trader consensus strongly favors Anthropic at 75.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of October, reflecting recent large language model releases that have led in independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and AI safety. OpenAI trails at 17.6% as traders weigh ongoing GPT iterations against competitive pressure, while Google at 5.8% and lower odds for Meta, xAI, and others signal limited near-term breakthroughs. This positioning stems from verified capability demonstrations and release cadence rather than speculation, with resolution hinging on measurable performance thresholds. Upcoming developer updates and third-party evaluations through October could still shift sentiment in this uncertain, fast-evolving sector.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 76%
OpenAI 17.6%
Google 5.8%
Meta 1.0%
$232,364 KL.
$232,364 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
76%
OpenAI
18%
6%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 76%
OpenAI 17.6%
Google 5.8%
Meta 1.0%
$232,364 KL.
$232,364 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$38,357 KL.
76%
OpenAI
$22,351 KL.
18%
$20,550 KL.
6%
Meta
$22,208 KL.
1%
SpaceXAI
$17,113 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$18,666 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$17,718 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$15,832 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$13,861 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,004 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$11,129 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$925 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$949 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$540 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus strongly favors Anthropic at 75.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of October, reflecting recent large language model releases that have led in independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and AI safety. OpenAI trails at 17.6% as traders weigh ongoing GPT iterations against competitive pressure, while Google at 5.8% and lower odds for Meta, xAI, and others signal limited near-term breakthroughs. This positioning stems from verified capability demonstrations and release cadence rather than speculation, with resolution hinging on measurable performance thresholds. Upcoming developer updates and third-party evaluations through October could still shift sentiment in this uncertain, fast-evolving sector.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Khối lượng
$232,364Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus strongly favors Anthropic at 75.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of October, reflecting recent large language model releases that have led in independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and AI safety. OpenAI trails at 17.6% as traders weigh ongoing GPT iterations against competitive pressure, while Google at 5.8% and lower odds for Meta, xAI, and others signal limited near-term breakthroughs. This positioning stems from verified capability demonstrations and release cadence rather than speculation, with resolution hinging on measurable performance thresholds. Upcoming developer updates and third-party evaluations through October could still shift sentiment in this uncertain, fast-evolving sector.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$232,364Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus strongly favors Anthropic at 75.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of October, reflecting recent large language model releases that have led in independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and AI safety. OpenAI trails at 17.6% as traders weigh ongoing GPT iterations against competitive pressure, while Google at 5.8% and lower odds for Meta, xAI, and others signal limited near-term breakthroughs. This positioning stems from verified capability demonstrations and release cadence rather than speculation, with resolution hinging on measurable performance thresholds. Upcoming developer updates and third-party evaluations through October could still shift sentiment in this uncertain, fast-evolving sector.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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