**Presidential immunity under South Korea’s constitution (Article 84) continues to shield sitting President Lee Jae-myung from arrest or active prosecution in pending cases.** These include election-law violations and corruption allegations tied to his prior roles, which courts have suspended during his term. As of mid-September 2026, no new indictments or enforcement actions have advanced to the point of detention. Recent developments reinforce this positioning. In an 18 September press conference, Lee explicitly ruled out seeking reelection through constitutional change and urged the National Assembly to remove provisions allowing a special counsel to dispose of or transfer already-indicted cases, aiming to reduce political friction over his own matters. He framed the push for a “manipulated prosecution” special counsel as focused on past investigative practices rather than personal case dismissal. A July 2026 police dismissal of a complaint alleging he directed illicit payments to North Korea further removed one peripheral line of inquiry. Approval ratings have fallen into the mid-30s amid housing policy criticism and local election fallout, yet the ruling Democratic Party retains a parliamentary majority and no credible impeachment movement or prosecutorial escalation has materialized. Historical precedent and the timeline to the end of 2026 leave limited windows for arrest without extraordinary political rupture. Traders therefore assign roughly 93% probability to “No,” viewing immunity and institutional continuity as the dominant factors through year-end.