Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s former prime minister defeated in the April 2026 parliamentary election, faces heightened scrutiny from the new Tisza-led government under Péter Magyar, including multiple anti-corruption investigations into Orbán-era procurement, state funds, and Fidesz-linked entities. Prosecutors have conducted raids on party servers and launched probes into alleged graft involving public contracts, yet no charges have produced an active warrant or detention order against Orbán personally. A June 2026 motion seeking his arrest in a Ukrainian cash-convoy case remains unexecuted amid ongoing inquiries, while Orbán continues public appearances and opposition activity. Hungarian legal procedures for high-profile political figures, combined with evidentiary thresholds and institutional transitions, have kept the risk of arrest by year-end low in trader assessments.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật10% khả năng
$38,502 KL.
$38,502 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
10% khả năng
$38,502 KL.
$38,502 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s former prime minister defeated in the April 2026 parliamentary election, faces heightened scrutiny from the new Tisza-led government under Péter Magyar, including multiple anti-corruption investigations into Orbán-era procurement, state funds, and Fidesz-linked entities. Prosecutors have conducted raids on party servers and launched probes into alleged graft involving public contracts, yet no charges have produced an active warrant or detention order against Orbán personally. A June 2026 motion seeking his arrest in a Ukrainian cash-convoy case remains unexecuted amid ongoing inquiries, while Orbán continues public appearances and opposition activity. Hungarian legal procedures for high-profile political figures, combined with evidentiary thresholds and institutional transitions, have kept the risk of arrest by year-end low in trader assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Khối lượng
$38,502Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s former prime minister defeated in the April 2026 parliamentary election, faces heightened scrutiny from the new Tisza-led government under Péter Magyar, including multiple anti-corruption investigations into Orbán-era procurement, state funds, and Fidesz-linked entities. Prosecutors have conducted raids on party servers and launched probes into alleged graft involving public contracts, yet no charges have produced an active warrant or detention order against Orbán personally. A June 2026 motion seeking his arrest in a Ukrainian cash-convoy case remains unexecuted amid ongoing inquiries, while Orbán continues public appearances and opposition activity. Hungarian legal procedures for high-profile political figures, combined with evidentiary thresholds and institutional transitions, have kept the risk of arrest by year-end low in trader assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$38,502Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s former prime minister defeated in the April 2026 parliamentary election, faces heightened scrutiny from the new Tisza-led government under Péter Magyar, including multiple anti-corruption investigations into Orbán-era procurement, state funds, and Fidesz-linked entities. Prosecutors have conducted raids on party servers and launched probes into alleged graft involving public contracts, yet no charges have produced an active warrant or detention order against Orbán personally. A June 2026 motion seeking his arrest in a Ukrainian cash-convoy case remains unexecuted amid ongoing inquiries, while Orbán continues public appearances and opposition activity. Hungarian legal procedures for high-profile political figures, combined with evidentiary thresholds and institutional transitions, have kept the risk of arrest by year-end low in trader assessments.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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