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icon for Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Lebanon
Bầu Cử·Trung Đông

Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Lebanon

icon for Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Lebanon
Bầu Cử·Trung Đông

Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Lebanon

Phong trào Amal (Amal) 1.0%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 1.0%

Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%

Phong trào Yêu nước Tự do (FPM) <1%

Polymarket

$676,855 KL.

Phong trào Amal (Amal) 1.0%

Lebanese Forces (LF) 1.0%

Hezbollah (Hezb) <1%

Phong trào Yêu nước Tự do (FPM) <1%

Polymarket

$676,855 KL.

Phong trào Amal (Amal)

$63,920 KL.

1%

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$168,618 KL.

1%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$56,367 KL.

1%

Phong trào Yêu nước Tự do (FPM)

$80,518 KL.

<1%

Đảng Taqaddom

$11,776 KL.

<1%

Lana – Đảng Dân chủ Xã hội (Lana)

$13,761 KL.

<1%

Liên minh Watani (Watani)

$7,539 KL.

<1%

Đảng Kataeb (Kataeb)

$7,370 KL.

<1%

Phong trào Marada (MM)

$8,688 KL.

<1%

Nhóm Hồi giáo (IG)

$8,631 KL.

<1%

Đảng Xã hội Ả Rập Ba'ath tại Liban (Ba'ath)

$10,710 KL.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$14,166 KL.

<1%

Đảng Đối thoại Quốc gia (NDP)

$47,398 KL.

<1%

Đảng Xã hội Tiến bộ (PSP)

$55,015 KL.

<1%

Phong trào Độc lập (IM)

$8,894 KL.

<1%

Hiệp hội Dự án Từ thiện Hồi giáo (ICPA)

$9,181 KL.

<1%

Đảng Tự Do Quốc Gia (NLP)

$9,599 KL.

<1%

Đảng Mada (Mada)

$28,113 KL.

<1%

Phong trào Phẩm giá (DM)

$29,195 KL.

<1%

ReLebanon

$9,819 KL.

<1%

Đảng Cách mạng Armenia (ARF)

$10,552 KL.

<1%

Union Party (UP)

$7,760 KL.

<1%

Tổ chức Nasserist Đại chúng (PNO)

$9,264 KL.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary election landscape remains highly fragmented, with no party positioned to secure a clear majority amid sectarian power-sharing rules and coalition dynamics. Recent developments, including the 2025 election of President Joseph Aoun and formation of a Salam-led cabinet, have coincided with Hezbollah's diminished military and financial leverage after 2024-2025 clashes with Israel and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Parliament's extension of its mandate has delayed the vote originally slated for May 2026, adding uncertainty. Amal Movement and Lebanese Forces hold slightly higher implied probabilities than peers due to established Shia and Christian bases, yet traders price all outcomes low because success hinges on unpredictable alliances, turnout among undecided voters, and potential electoral reforms. Ongoing disarmament talks and regional tensions further cloud consolidation behind any single contender.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Khối lượng
$676,855
Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026
Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Người giải quyết

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary election landscape remains highly fragmented, with no party positioned to secure a clear majority amid sectarian power-sharing rules and coalition dynamics. Recent developments, including the 2025 election of President Joseph Aoun and formation of a Salam-led cabinet, have coincided with Hezbollah's diminished military and financial leverage after 2024-2025 clashes with Israel and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Parliament's extension of its mandate has delayed the vote originally slated for May 2026, adding uncertainty. Amal Movement and Lebanese Forces hold slightly higher implied probabilities than peers due to established Shia and Christian bases, yet traders price all outcomes low because success hinges on unpredictable alliances, turnout among undecided voters, and potential electoral reforms. Ongoing disarmament talks and regional tensions further cloud consolidation behind any single contender.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Khối lượng
$676,855
Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026
Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Người giải quyết

0x2F5e3684c...

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Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.

Câu hỏi thường gặp

"Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Lebanon" là thị trường dự đoán trên Polymarket với 23 kết quả có thể nơi các nhà giao dịch mua và bán cổ phần dựa trên điều họ tin sẽ xảy ra. Kết quả dẫn đầu hiện tại là "Phong trào Amal (Amal)" ở mức 1%, tiếp theo là "Lebanese Forces (LF)" ở mức 1%. Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực. Ví dụ, cổ phần ở giá 1¢ ngụ ý thị trường tập thể cho rằng có 1% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Tỷ lệ này thay đổi liên tục khi trader phản ứng với diễn biến và thông tin mới. Cổ phần đúng kết quả có thể đổi lấy $1 mỗi cổ phần khi thị trường được giải quyết.

Tính đến hôm nay, "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Lebanon" đã tạo $676.9K tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào Jan 6, 2026. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.

Để giao dịch trên "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Lebanon," duyệt 23 kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.

Đây là thị trường mở rộng. Người dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Lebanon" là "Phong trào Amal (Amal)" chỉ ở mức 1%, với "Lebanese Forces (LF)" sát đằng sau ở 1%. Không kết quả nào chiếm đa số mạnh, trader xem đây là rất không chắc chắn, có thể tạo cơ hội giao dịch độc đáo. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực, vì vậy đánh dấu trang này để xem xác suất phát triển.

Quy tắc giải quyết cho "Người chiến thắng trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Lebanon" định nghĩa chính xác điều gì cần xảy ra để mỗi kết quả được tuyên bố thắng — bao gồm nguồn dữ liệu chính thức được sử dụng để xác định kết quả. Bạn có thể xem tiêu chí giải quyết đầy đủ trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này phía trên bình luận. Chúng tôi khuyên đọc kỹ quy tắc trước khi giao dịch, vì chúng chỉ rõ điều kiện, trường hợp ngoại lệ và nguồn chính xác quản lý cách thị trường được thanh toán.