Louisiana's 4th Congressional District carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+26, making it the state's most Republican-leaning seat. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces minimal opposition in the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, with Democratic candidates raising under $300,000 combined against his $20 million-plus war chest. Forecasters from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the race Safe or Solid Republican. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94.5% implied probability because the district's voting patterns, Johnson's established position, and weak challengers align with historical base rates for such seats. A late scandal, health event, or national Democratic surge exceeding 2020 levels could shift outcomes, though none appear on the immediate horizon before the December runoff window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLA-04 House Election Winner
LA-04 House Election Winner
$11,997 KL.
$11,997 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$11,997 KL.
$11,997 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$3,671 KL.
95%
Democratic Party
$8,326 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 4th Congressional District carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+26, making it the state's most Republican-leaning seat. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces minimal opposition in the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, with Democratic candidates raising under $300,000 combined against his $20 million-plus war chest. Forecasters from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the race Safe or Solid Republican. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94.5% implied probability because the district's voting patterns, Johnson's established position, and weak challengers align with historical base rates for such seats. A late scandal, health event, or national Democratic surge exceeding 2020 levels could shift outcomes, though none appear on the immediate horizon before the December runoff window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$11,997Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 4th Congressional District carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+26, making it the state's most Republican-leaning seat. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces minimal opposition in the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, with Democratic candidates raising under $300,000 combined against his $20 million-plus war chest. Forecasters from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the race Safe or Solid Republican. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94.5% implied probability because the district's voting patterns, Johnson's established position, and weak challengers align with historical base rates for such seats. A late scandal, health event, or national Democratic surge exceeding 2020 levels could shift outcomes, though none appear on the immediate horizon before the December runoff window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$11,997Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's 4th Congressional District carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+26, making it the state's most Republican-leaning seat. Incumbent Speaker Mike Johnson faces minimal opposition in the November 3, 2026 jungle primary, with Democratic candidates raising under $300,000 combined against his $20 million-plus war chest. Forecasters from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the race Safe or Solid Republican. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94.5% implied probability because the district's voting patterns, Johnson's established position, and weak challengers align with historical base rates for such seats. A late scandal, health event, or national Democratic surge exceeding 2020 levels could shift outcomes, though none appear on the immediate horizon before the December runoff window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp