Democratic House incumbents have faced an unusually high number of primary challenges in the 2026 cycle, driven by generational turnover demands and progressive insurgencies backed by figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and groups aligned with democratic socialists. Seven Democratic members have already lost renomination bids to younger challengers, including Reps. Diana DeGette, Adriano Espaillat, Dan Goldman, Shri Thanedar, John Larson, Al Green, and Julie Johnson, a total tied with prior high-water marks like 2012 and fueled by ideological rifts over policy priorities plus redistricting-forced matchups in states such as Texas. Trader consensus on 10-12 total defeats reflects these confirmed outcomes alongside the limited number of remaining contests and the enduring advantages of incumbency, which have kept the overall primary defeat rate near 3 percent despite the elevated activity. Additional upsets in any late runoffs could push totals higher, though structural barriers and voter patterns in most safe districts make that outcome less probable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
$53,614 KL.
$53,614 KL.
10-12
97%
13-15
3%
$53,614 KL.
$53,614 KL.
10-12
$11,332 KL.
97%
13-15
$5,277 KL.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House incumbents have faced an unusually high number of primary challenges in the 2026 cycle, driven by generational turnover demands and progressive insurgencies backed by figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and groups aligned with democratic socialists. Seven Democratic members have already lost renomination bids to younger challengers, including Reps. Diana DeGette, Adriano Espaillat, Dan Goldman, Shri Thanedar, John Larson, Al Green, and Julie Johnson, a total tied with prior high-water marks like 2012 and fueled by ideological rifts over policy priorities plus redistricting-forced matchups in states such as Texas. Trader consensus on 10-12 total defeats reflects these confirmed outcomes alongside the limited number of remaining contests and the enduring advantages of incumbency, which have kept the overall primary defeat rate near 3 percent despite the elevated activity. Additional upsets in any late runoffs could push totals higher, though structural barriers and voter patterns in most safe districts make that outcome less probable.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Thị trường mở: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Khối lượng
$53,614Thị trường mở
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House incumbents have faced an unusually high number of primary challenges in the 2026 cycle, driven by generational turnover demands and progressive insurgencies backed by figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and groups aligned with democratic socialists. Seven Democratic members have already lost renomination bids to younger challengers, including Reps. Diana DeGette, Adriano Espaillat, Dan Goldman, Shri Thanedar, John Larson, Al Green, and Julie Johnson, a total tied with prior high-water marks like 2012 and fueled by ideological rifts over policy priorities plus redistricting-forced matchups in states such as Texas. Trader consensus on 10-12 total defeats reflects these confirmed outcomes alongside the limited number of remaining contests and the enduring advantages of incumbency, which have kept the overall primary defeat rate near 3 percent despite the elevated activity. Additional upsets in any late runoffs could push totals higher, though structural barriers and voter patterns in most safe districts make that outcome less probable.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Khối lượng
$53,614Thị trường mở
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic House incumbents have faced an unusually high number of primary challenges in the 2026 cycle, driven by generational turnover demands and progressive insurgencies backed by figures such as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and groups aligned with democratic socialists. Seven Democratic members have already lost renomination bids to younger challengers, including Reps. Diana DeGette, Adriano Espaillat, Dan Goldman, Shri Thanedar, John Larson, Al Green, and Julie Johnson, a total tied with prior high-water marks like 2012 and fueled by ideological rifts over policy priorities plus redistricting-forced matchups in states such as Texas. Trader consensus on 10-12 total defeats reflects these confirmed outcomes alongside the limited number of remaining contests and the enduring advantages of incumbency, which have kept the overall primary defeat rate near 3 percent despite the elevated activity. Additional upsets in any late runoffs could push totals higher, though structural barriers and voter patterns in most safe districts make that outcome less probable.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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