Michigan leads trader consensus as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity because it is an open seat in a narrow battleground where recent polling averages show the race essentially tied between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. The August Democratic primary produced a progressive nominee in a state President Trump carried by under two points in 2024, keeping the contest highly competitive without a clear structural edge. Maine follows as the next most cited option due to incumbent Susan Collins facing Democrat Troy Jackson in a state that leans Democratic, though Collins’s long record of outperforming polls tempers expectations. Ohio draws attention from Sherrod Brown’s name recognition in the special election against Jon Husted, while Texas, Alaska, and Iowa register lower probabilities given their more Republican-leaning fundamentals and fewer recent polling shifts favoring Democratic challengers. Fresh September surveys in Michigan and Maine have reinforced the perception of these two contests as the most fluid.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtDems' best tossup Senate race?
Dems' best tossup Senate race?
Michigan 44%
Maine 19%
Ohio 14.0%
Texas 6%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
44%
Maine
19%
Ohio
14%
Texas
6%
Alaska
4%
Iowa
4%
Michigan 44%
Maine 19%
Ohio 14.0%
Texas 6%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
$2,935 KL.
44%
Maine
$371 KL.
19%
Ohio
$376 KL.
14%
Texas
$139 KL.
6%
Alaska
$241 KL.
4%
Iowa
$134 KL.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan leads trader consensus as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity because it is an open seat in a narrow battleground where recent polling averages show the race essentially tied between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. The August Democratic primary produced a progressive nominee in a state President Trump carried by under two points in 2024, keeping the contest highly competitive without a clear structural edge. Maine follows as the next most cited option due to incumbent Susan Collins facing Democrat Troy Jackson in a state that leans Democratic, though Collins’s long record of outperforming polls tempers expectations. Ohio draws attention from Sherrod Brown’s name recognition in the special election against Jon Husted, while Texas, Alaska, and Iowa register lower probabilities given their more Republican-leaning fundamentals and fewer recent polling shifts favoring Democratic challengers. Fresh September surveys in Michigan and Maine have reinforced the perception of these two contests as the most fluid.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$4,197Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan leads trader consensus as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity because it is an open seat in a narrow battleground where recent polling averages show the race essentially tied between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. The August Democratic primary produced a progressive nominee in a state President Trump carried by under two points in 2024, keeping the contest highly competitive without a clear structural edge. Maine follows as the next most cited option due to incumbent Susan Collins facing Democrat Troy Jackson in a state that leans Democratic, though Collins’s long record of outperforming polls tempers expectations. Ohio draws attention from Sherrod Brown’s name recognition in the special election against Jon Husted, while Texas, Alaska, and Iowa register lower probabilities given their more Republican-leaning fundamentals and fewer recent polling shifts favoring Democratic challengers. Fresh September surveys in Michigan and Maine have reinforced the perception of these two contests as the most fluid.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$4,197Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Michigan leads trader consensus as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity because it is an open seat in a narrow battleground where recent polling averages show the race essentially tied between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. The August Democratic primary produced a progressive nominee in a state President Trump carried by under two points in 2024, keeping the contest highly competitive without a clear structural edge. Maine follows as the next most cited option due to incumbent Susan Collins facing Democrat Troy Jackson in a state that leans Democratic, though Collins’s long record of outperforming polls tempers expectations. Ohio draws attention from Sherrod Brown’s name recognition in the special election against Jon Husted, while Texas, Alaska, and Iowa register lower probabilities given their more Republican-leaning fundamentals and fewer recent polling shifts favoring Democratic challengers. Fresh September surveys in Michigan and Maine have reinforced the perception of these two contests as the most fluid.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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