Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and regional analyses indicate a peak of 31–32°C in Tel Aviv on September 11 under clear skies and light northwesterly flow, aligning with the market's strong 69.5% implied probability on 32°C. Stable subtropical high pressure and Mediterranean Sea moderation limit extreme heating, while typical September climatology places daily maxima near 29–30°C with low variability. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement and no incoming fronts or heat advection to push values toward 33°C or higher, though minor timing differences in diurnal peaks could shift the exact maximum by 1°C. Traders appear to weight the tight consensus heavily, with lower probabilities on 31°C or 33°C reflecting residual forecast spread.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 11?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 11?
32°C 70%
31°C 17%
33°C 14%
30°C 3%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 11, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
17%
32°C
70%
33°C
14%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 70%
31°C 17%
33°C 14%
30°C 3%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 11, 2026
28°C or below
$493 KL.
<1%
29°C
$252 KL.
<1%
30°C
$279 KL.
3%
31°C
$688 KL.
17%
32°C
$586 KL.
70%
33°C
$553 KL.
14%
34°C
$280 KL.
2%
35°C
$441 KL.
1%
36°C
$379 KL.
<1%
37°C
$230 KL.
<1%
38°C or higher
$230 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and regional analyses indicate a peak of 31–32°C in Tel Aviv on September 11 under clear skies and light northwesterly flow, aligning with the market's strong 69.5% implied probability on 32°C. Stable subtropical high pressure and Mediterranean Sea moderation limit extreme heating, while typical September climatology places daily maxima near 29–30°C with low variability. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement and no incoming fronts or heat advection to push values toward 33°C or higher, though minor timing differences in diurnal peaks could shift the exact maximum by 1°C. Traders appear to weight the tight consensus heavily, with lower probabilities on 31°C or 33°C reflecting residual forecast spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Khối lượng
$4,412Ngày kết thúc
Sep 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and regional analyses indicate a peak of 31–32°C in Tel Aviv on September 11 under clear skies and light northwesterly flow, aligning with the market's strong 69.5% implied probability on 32°C. Stable subtropical high pressure and Mediterranean Sea moderation limit extreme heating, while typical September climatology places daily maxima near 29–30°C with low variability. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement and no incoming fronts or heat advection to push values toward 33°C or higher, though minor timing differences in diurnal peaks could shift the exact maximum by 1°C. Traders appear to weight the tight consensus heavily, with lower probabilities on 31°C or 33°C reflecting residual forecast spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$4,412Ngày kết thúc
Sep 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and regional analyses indicate a peak of 31–32°C in Tel Aviv on September 11 under clear skies and light northwesterly flow, aligning with the market's strong 69.5% implied probability on 32°C. Stable subtropical high pressure and Mediterranean Sea moderation limit extreme heating, while typical September climatology places daily maxima near 29–30°C with low variability. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement and no incoming fronts or heat advection to push values toward 33°C or higher, though minor timing differences in diurnal peaks could shift the exact maximum by 1°C. Traders appear to weight the tight consensus heavily, with lower probabilities on 31°C or 33°C reflecting residual forecast spread.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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