The December 6, 2026, presidential election occurs under a new constitution approved by referendum in late August that expands presidential authority over cabinet appointments, ministry creation, and parliamentary dissolution while imposing a five-year continuous residency requirement for candidates. The vote follows the November 2025 military coup that annulled disputed 2025 results in which Fernando Dias da Costa and former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló both claimed victory, leading to a transitional military council. Dias da Costa leads trader pricing on the strength of his prior opposition coalition backing and positioning as the main alternative to the ousted incumbent, while Embaló trails amid questions over his post-coup status and party fragmentation. The wide field of low-probability contenders reflects limited consolidation around any single figure, with support likely to shift based on alliances, regional turnout, and the military transition authority's stance on civilian rule.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGuinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Fernando Dias da Costa 8.0%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló 4.0%
José Mário Vaz 2.8%
Honório Augusto Lopes 1.6%
$339,326 KL.
$339,326 KL.
Fernando Dias da Costa
20%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
9%
José Mário Vaz
3%
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
João de Deus Mendes
2%
Baciro Djá
2%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
Mário da Silva Júnior
2%
Siga Batista
2%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
2%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
2%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
1%
Fernando Dias da Costa 8.0%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló 4.0%
José Mário Vaz 2.8%
Honório Augusto Lopes 1.6%
$339,326 KL.
$339,326 KL.
Fernando Dias da Costa
20%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
9%
José Mário Vaz
3%
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
João de Deus Mendes
2%
Baciro Djá
2%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
Mário da Silva Júnior
2%
Siga Batista
2%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
2%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
2%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Thị trường mở: Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Người giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...The December 6, 2026, presidential election occurs under a new constitution approved by referendum in late August that expands presidential authority over cabinet appointments, ministry creation, and parliamentary dissolution while imposing a five-year continuous residency requirement for candidates. The vote follows the November 2025 military coup that annulled disputed 2025 results in which Fernando Dias da Costa and former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló both claimed victory, leading to a transitional military council. Dias da Costa leads trader pricing on the strength of his prior opposition coalition backing and positioning as the main alternative to the ousted incumbent, while Embaló trails amid questions over his post-coup status and party fragmentation. The wide field of low-probability contenders reflects limited consolidation around any single figure, with support likely to shift based on alliances, regional turnout, and the military transition authority's stance on civilian rule.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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