Recent September FOMC projections, with a median federal funds rate at 4.1% by year-end 2026, anchor trader expectations for one additional 25-basis-point hike amid upward revisions to core PCE inflation and GDP growth. The leading Pause-Hike-Pause sequence at 47% implied probability reflects this path, positioning the move in December after the October meeting. Softer September employment data—nonfarm payrolls rising just 29,000 with downward revisions and unemployment edging to 4.2%—has reduced near-term hike odds, while wage growth slowed to 3.0% year-over-year. Persistent inflation above the 2% target and upcoming December projections remain key swing factors for the rate path through January.