**Persistent above-target inflation amid geopolitical energy shocks has anchored trader expectations for the June-through-September FOMC cycle, pushing the “Other” outcome to 78.5% while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 20.0%.** Both the June and July meetings delivered holds at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target, the latter on a 9-3 vote with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Elevated PCE and CPI readings—running near 3.4–3.7% year-over-year—reflect supply-side pressures from Middle East tensions that have kept oil prices elevated. The labor market remains stable, with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% and moderate payroll gains, giving the Committee room to prioritize price stability under Chair Warsh. June dot plots lifted the 2026 median rate projection to 3.8%, signaling that most participants see at least one hike this year. With the September 15–16 meeting imminent and fresh inflation data due, futures markets continue to price a high probability of a September tightening, rendering any cut sequence improbable and concentrating risk in the “Other” bucket.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOther 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$864,426 KL.
$864,426 KL.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
20%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
78%
Other 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$864,426 KL.
$864,426 KL.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$332,705 KL.
20%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$102,198 KL.
<1%
Other
$373,647 KL.
78%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation amid geopolitical energy shocks has anchored trader expectations for the June-through-September FOMC cycle, pushing the “Other” outcome to 78.5% while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 20.0%.**
Both the June and July meetings delivered holds at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target, the latter on a 9-3 vote with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Elevated PCE and CPI readings—running near 3.4–3.7% year-over-year—reflect supply-side pressures from Middle East tensions that have kept oil prices elevated. The labor market remains stable, with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% and moderate payroll gains, giving the Committee room to prioritize price stability under Chair Warsh. June dot plots lifted the 2026 median rate projection to 3.8%, signaling that most participants see at least one hike this year. With the September 15–16 meeting imminent and fresh inflation data due, futures markets continue to price a high probability of a September tightening, rendering any cut sequence improbable and concentrating risk in the “Other” bucket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$864,426Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation amid geopolitical energy shocks has anchored trader expectations for the June-through-September FOMC cycle, pushing the “Other” outcome to 78.5% while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 20.0%.**
Both the June and July meetings delivered holds at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target, the latter on a 9-3 vote with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Elevated PCE and CPI readings—running near 3.4–3.7% year-over-year—reflect supply-side pressures from Middle East tensions that have kept oil prices elevated. The labor market remains stable, with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% and moderate payroll gains, giving the Committee room to prioritize price stability under Chair Warsh. June dot plots lifted the 2026 median rate projection to 3.8%, signaling that most participants see at least one hike this year. With the September 15–16 meeting imminent and fresh inflation data due, futures markets continue to price a high probability of a September tightening, rendering any cut sequence improbable and concentrating risk in the “Other” bucket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$864,426Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent above-target inflation amid geopolitical energy shocks has anchored trader expectations for the June-through-September FOMC cycle, pushing the “Other” outcome to 78.5% while Pause–Pause–Pause sits at 20.0%.** Both the June and July meetings delivered holds at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target, the latter on a 9-3 vote with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Elevated PCE and CPI readings—running near 3.4–3.7% year-over-year—reflect supply-side pressures from Middle East tensions that have kept oil prices elevated. The labor market remains stable, with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% and moderate payroll gains, giving the Committee room to prioritize price stability under Chair Warsh. June dot plots lifted the 2026 median rate projection to 3.8%, signaling that most participants see at least one hike this year. With the September 15–16 meeting imminent and fresh inflation data due, futures markets continue to price a high probability of a September tightening, rendering any cut sequence improbable and concentrating risk in the “Other” bucket.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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