Democratic prospects of flipping the House in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the elevated trader consensus on impeachment before January 2029. Recent polling averages show Democrats holding an edge on the generic congressional ballot, which could deliver the simple majority needed for House passage of articles. Multiple resolutions introduced by Rep. Al Green, including one in August 2026 citing immigration enforcement actions and related incidents, were tabled by the current Republican majority with limited Democratic support. Party leaders have remained noncommittal on pursuing the process, emphasizing investigations and electoral outcomes over immediate action. Trump has publicly linked midterm results to future impeachment risk, while low near-term probabilities reflect the slim chance of passage before the new Congress convenes.