Recent elevated error incidents on September 2 and 3, including a multi-hour outage impacting Claude Sonnet 5, Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1, and Opus 5 models across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Cowork, have shaped trader views on September downtime days. Anthropic's 99.4% 90-day uptime for claude.ai reflects roughly 13 hours of cumulative disruption, driven by surging demand outpacing infrastructure scaling for its large language models. Frequent short incidents and degraded performance episodes underscore reliability pressures amid competitive AI development. With 5-7 and 8-10 day ranges nearly tied in market-implied odds, outcomes hinge on whether infrastructure mitigations stabilize usage or further load from new capabilities triggers additional events.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Claude go down on __ days in September?
Will Claude go down on __ days in September?
8-10 39%
5-7 35%
11-13 13%
<5 8.1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
<5
8%
5-7
35%
8-10
39%
11-13
13%
14+
3%
8-10 39%
5-7 35%
11-13 13%
<5 8.1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
<5
$1,281 Обс.
8%
5-7
$2,350 Обс.
35%
8-10
$426 Обс.
39%
11-13
$607 Обс.
13%
14+
$382 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent elevated error incidents on September 2 and 3, including a multi-hour outage impacting Claude Sonnet 5, Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1, and Opus 5 models across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Cowork, have shaped trader views on September downtime days. Anthropic's 99.4% 90-day uptime for claude.ai reflects roughly 13 hours of cumulative disruption, driven by surging demand outpacing infrastructure scaling for its large language models. Frequent short incidents and degraded performance episodes underscore reliability pressures amid competitive AI development. With 5-7 and 8-10 day ranges nearly tied in market-implied odds, outcomes hinge on whether infrastructure mitigations stabilize usage or further load from new capabilities triggers additional events.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$5,046Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent elevated error incidents on September 2 and 3, including a multi-hour outage impacting Claude Sonnet 5, Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1, and Opus 5 models across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Cowork, have shaped trader views on September downtime days. Anthropic's 99.4% 90-day uptime for claude.ai reflects roughly 13 hours of cumulative disruption, driven by surging demand outpacing infrastructure scaling for its large language models. Frequent short incidents and degraded performance episodes underscore reliability pressures amid competitive AI development. With 5-7 and 8-10 day ranges nearly tied in market-implied odds, outcomes hinge on whether infrastructure mitigations stabilize usage or further load from new capabilities triggers additional events.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Обсяг
$5,046Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent elevated error incidents on September 2 and 3, including a multi-hour outage impacting Claude Sonnet 5, Mythos 5.1, Fable 5.1, and Opus 5 models across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code, and Cowork, have shaped trader views on September downtime days. Anthropic's 99.4% 90-day uptime for claude.ai reflects roughly 13 hours of cumulative disruption, driven by surging demand outpacing infrastructure scaling for its large language models. Frequent short incidents and degraded performance episodes underscore reliability pressures amid competitive AI development. With 5-7 and 8-10 day ranges nearly tied in market-implied odds, outcomes hinge on whether infrastructure mitigations stabilize usage or further load from new capabilities triggers additional events.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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