The extreme rarity of Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale, combined with the highly suppressed 2026 Atlantic season and minimal time remaining before year-end, underpins the 96.6% market-implied probability of no such event before 2027. Only four U.S. mainland Category 5 landfalls have occurred since 1851 (1935 Labor Day, 1969 Camille, 1992 Andrew, and 2018 Michael), yielding a historical base rate below 3% per season. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts anticipated below-normal activity due to strong El Niño-driven wind shear, with the season posting record-low accumulated cyclone energy through mid-September and no hurricanes formed until very late. With the peak period ending and just weeks left until November 30, the National Hurricane Center’s official intensity assessments make a qualifying landfall statistically improbable. A realistic but low-probability shift would require an unprecedented late-season rapid intensification in the Gulf or western Atlantic under atypical steering patterns, though current model consensus and ocean-atmosphere conditions render this outcome unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
3% шанс
$142,105 Обс.
$142,105 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
3% шанс
$142,105 Обс.
$142,105 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The extreme rarity of Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale, combined with the highly suppressed 2026 Atlantic season and minimal time remaining before year-end, underpins the 96.6% market-implied probability of no such event before 2027. Only four U.S. mainland Category 5 landfalls have occurred since 1851 (1935 Labor Day, 1969 Camille, 1992 Andrew, and 2018 Michael), yielding a historical base rate below 3% per season. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts anticipated below-normal activity due to strong El Niño-driven wind shear, with the season posting record-low accumulated cyclone energy through mid-September and no hurricanes formed until very late. With the peak period ending and just weeks left until November 30, the National Hurricane Center’s official intensity assessments make a qualifying landfall statistically improbable. A realistic but low-probability shift would require an unprecedented late-season rapid intensification in the Gulf or western Atlantic under atypical steering patterns, though current model consensus and ocean-atmosphere conditions render this outcome unlikely.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$142,105Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The extreme rarity of Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale, combined with the highly suppressed 2026 Atlantic season and minimal time remaining before year-end, underpins the 96.6% market-implied probability of no such event before 2027. Only four U.S. mainland Category 5 landfalls have occurred since 1851 (1935 Labor Day, 1969 Camille, 1992 Andrew, and 2018 Michael), yielding a historical base rate below 3% per season. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts anticipated below-normal activity due to strong El Niño-driven wind shear, with the season posting record-low accumulated cyclone energy through mid-September and no hurricanes formed until very late. With the peak period ending and just weeks left until November 30, the National Hurricane Center’s official intensity assessments make a qualifying landfall statistically improbable. A realistic but low-probability shift would require an unprecedented late-season rapid intensification in the Gulf or western Atlantic under atypical steering patterns, though current model consensus and ocean-atmosphere conditions render this outcome unlikely.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Обсяг
$142,105Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale, combined with the highly suppressed 2026 Atlantic season and minimal time remaining before year-end, underpins the 96.6% market-implied probability of no such event before 2027. Only four U.S. mainland Category 5 landfalls have occurred since 1851 (1935 Labor Day, 1969 Camille, 1992 Andrew, and 2018 Michael), yielding a historical base rate below 3% per season. NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts anticipated below-normal activity due to strong El Niño-driven wind shear, with the season posting record-low accumulated cyclone energy through mid-September and no hurricanes formed until very late. With the peak period ending and just weeks left until November 30, the National Hurricane Center’s official intensity assessments make a qualifying landfall statistically improbable. A realistic but low-probability shift would require an unprecedented late-season rapid intensification in the Gulf or western Atlantic under atypical steering patterns, though current model consensus and ocean-atmosphere conditions render this outcome unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання