**Rebecca Cooke holds a strong lead in trader consensus for Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District seat, reflecting her consistent edge in recent polling and the incumbent’s challenges in a competitive rematch.** Derrick Van Orden won the 2024 general election by two points, but 2026 surveys from Democratic-aligned pollsters show Cooke ahead by margins of one to four points, with the latest June FM3 poll at 50-46. Projections such as Vote-Scope’s September model forecast a Democratic vote share near 53 percent. The district remains a toss-up or lean-Democratic race per most nonpartisan raters, with both candidates securing their primaries in August. Recent campaign activity has centered on local issues including data center regulation and energy costs, where Cooke has run ads criticizing Van Orden’s record while he supported legislation to shift infrastructure expenses to large users. Van Orden’s favorability ratings have appeared underwater in some surveys, and ongoing disputes over debate formats have kept attention on candidate engagement. These factors, combined with the broader midterm environment, underpin the current implied probabilities without any single late-breaking event dominating the race.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWI-03 House Election Winner
WI-03 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Rebecca Cooke (D)
71%
Derrick Van Orden (R)
29%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Rebecca Cooke (D)
$4,465 Обс.
71%
Derrick Van Orden (R)
$2,073 Обс.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Rebecca Cooke holds a strong lead in trader consensus for Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District seat, reflecting her consistent edge in recent polling and the incumbent’s challenges in a competitive rematch.**
Derrick Van Orden won the 2024 general election by two points, but 2026 surveys from Democratic-aligned pollsters show Cooke ahead by margins of one to four points, with the latest June FM3 poll at 50-46. Projections such as Vote-Scope’s September model forecast a Democratic vote share near 53 percent. The district remains a toss-up or lean-Democratic race per most nonpartisan raters, with both candidates securing their primaries in August.
Recent campaign activity has centered on local issues including data center regulation and energy costs, where Cooke has run ads criticizing Van Orden’s record while he supported legislation to shift infrastructure expenses to large users. Van Orden’s favorability ratings have appeared underwater in some surveys, and ongoing disputes over debate formats have kept attention on candidate engagement. These factors, combined with the broader midterm environment, underpin the current implied probabilities without any single late-breaking event dominating the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,538Дата завершення
Nov 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Rebecca Cooke holds a strong lead in trader consensus for Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District seat, reflecting her consistent edge in recent polling and the incumbent’s challenges in a competitive rematch.**
Derrick Van Orden won the 2024 general election by two points, but 2026 surveys from Democratic-aligned pollsters show Cooke ahead by margins of one to four points, with the latest June FM3 poll at 50-46. Projections such as Vote-Scope’s September model forecast a Democratic vote share near 53 percent. The district remains a toss-up or lean-Democratic race per most nonpartisan raters, with both candidates securing their primaries in August.
Recent campaign activity has centered on local issues including data center regulation and energy costs, where Cooke has run ads criticizing Van Orden’s record while he supported legislation to shift infrastructure expenses to large users. Van Orden’s favorability ratings have appeared underwater in some surveys, and ongoing disputes over debate formats have kept attention on candidate engagement. These factors, combined with the broader midterm environment, underpin the current implied probabilities without any single late-breaking event dominating the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$6,538Дата завершення
Nov 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...**Rebecca Cooke holds a strong lead in trader consensus for Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District seat, reflecting her consistent edge in recent polling and the incumbent’s challenges in a competitive rematch.** Derrick Van Orden won the 2024 general election by two points, but 2026 surveys from Democratic-aligned pollsters show Cooke ahead by margins of one to four points, with the latest June FM3 poll at 50-46. Projections such as Vote-Scope’s September model forecast a Democratic vote share near 53 percent. The district remains a toss-up or lean-Democratic race per most nonpartisan raters, with both candidates securing their primaries in August. Recent campaign activity has centered on local issues including data center regulation and energy costs, where Cooke has run ads criticizing Van Orden’s record while he supported legislation to shift infrastructure expenses to large users. Van Orden’s favorability ratings have appeared underwater in some surveys, and ongoing disputes over debate formats have kept attention on candidate engagement. These factors, combined with the broader midterm environment, underpin the current implied probabilities without any single late-breaking event dominating the race.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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