A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.8 °C in September 2026 and forecasts pointing to a peak exceeding prior records, represents the dominant near-term driver pushing September global mean temperatures higher. Long-term greenhouse gas forcing provides the underlying upward trend, while the event’s influence on atmospheric circulation and ocean heat release adds several tenths of a degree, though the precise September anomaly remains sensitive to the timing of peak warming, model spread in seasonal forecasts, and short-term variability such as cloud cover or aerosol effects. Official monitoring from agencies including NOAA and ECMWF shows current global surface temperatures running well above recent Septembers relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, yet the narrow spread of market-implied odds around the 1.30–1.44 °C bins reflects genuine uncertainty in final monthly averages and resolution thresholds amid evolving ENSO conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Обс.
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Обс.
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Обс.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Обс.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Обс.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Обс.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.8 °C in September 2026 and forecasts pointing to a peak exceeding prior records, represents the dominant near-term driver pushing September global mean temperatures higher. Long-term greenhouse gas forcing provides the underlying upward trend, while the event’s influence on atmospheric circulation and ocean heat release adds several tenths of a degree, though the precise September anomaly remains sensitive to the timing of peak warming, model spread in seasonal forecasts, and short-term variability such as cloud cover or aerosol effects. Official monitoring from agencies including NOAA and ECMWF shows current global surface temperatures running well above recent Septembers relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, yet the narrow spread of market-implied odds around the 1.30–1.44 °C bins reflects genuine uncertainty in final monthly averages and resolution thresholds amid evolving ENSO conditions.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Oct 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.8 °C in September 2026 and forecasts pointing to a peak exceeding prior records, represents the dominant near-term driver pushing September global mean temperatures higher. Long-term greenhouse gas forcing provides the underlying upward trend, while the event’s influence on atmospheric circulation and ocean heat release adds several tenths of a degree, though the precise September anomaly remains sensitive to the timing of peak warming, model spread in seasonal forecasts, and short-term variability such as cloud cover or aerosol effects. Official monitoring from agencies including NOAA and ECMWF shows current global surface temperatures running well above recent Septembers relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, yet the narrow spread of market-implied odds around the 1.30–1.44 °C bins reflects genuine uncertainty in final monthly averages and resolution thresholds amid evolving ENSO conditions.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Oct 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.8 °C in September 2026 and forecasts pointing to a peak exceeding prior records, represents the dominant near-term driver pushing September global mean temperatures higher. Long-term greenhouse gas forcing provides the underlying upward trend, while the event’s influence on atmospheric circulation and ocean heat release adds several tenths of a degree, though the precise September anomaly remains sensitive to the timing of peak warming, model spread in seasonal forecasts, and short-term variability such as cloud cover or aerosol effects. Official monitoring from agencies including NOAA and ECMWF shows current global surface temperatures running well above recent Septembers relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, yet the narrow spread of market-implied odds around the 1.30–1.44 °C bins reflects genuine uncertainty in final monthly averages and resolution thresholds amid evolving ENSO conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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