Traders assign a 96.6% probability to no U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has taken no legislative steps to enact conscription, which requires specific statutory approval beyond the all-volunteer force maintained since 1973. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act updated Selective Service registration to an automatic process effective December 2026, but this modernizes database management without authorizing induction or altering the volunteer model. Bipartisan proposals to repeal the Selective Service System have gained limited traction, while public polling shows broad opposition to conscription even amid ongoing conflicts. High trader consensus reflects the absence of recruitment crises or bills advancing through committees. Late-year developments such as major escalation requiring rapid manpower expansion or congressional votes on emergency authorities before January 2027 could still shift the outcome.