Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2026 U.S. real GDP expansion of 1.9–2.4 percent, anchored by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5 percent. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 growth registered 1.5 percent annualized, Q3 nowcasts hover around 2.3 percent, and leading indicators show no contraction signals. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects have tempered momentum but not derailed expansion, keeping recession odds below 25 percent in market-implied measures. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks, an abrupt AI capex reversal, or unexpected inflation spikes that could force tighter monetary policy and tip quarterly readings negative.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено2% шанс
$33,280 Обс.
$33,280 Обс.
Jan 28, 2027
2% шанс
$33,280 Обс.
$33,280 Обс.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2026 U.S. real GDP expansion of 1.9–2.4 percent, anchored by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5 percent. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 growth registered 1.5 percent annualized, Q3 nowcasts hover around 2.3 percent, and leading indicators show no contraction signals. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects have tempered momentum but not derailed expansion, keeping recession odds below 25 percent in market-implied measures. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks, an abrupt AI capex reversal, or unexpected inflation spikes that could force tighter monetary policy and tip quarterly readings negative.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$33,280Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2026 U.S. real GDP expansion of 1.9–2.4 percent, anchored by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5 percent. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 growth registered 1.5 percent annualized, Q3 nowcasts hover around 2.3 percent, and leading indicators show no contraction signals. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects have tempered momentum but not derailed expansion, keeping recession odds below 25 percent in market-implied measures. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks, an abrupt AI capex reversal, or unexpected inflation spikes that could force tighter monetary policy and tip quarterly readings negative.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Обсяг
$33,280Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project 2026 U.S. real GDP expansion of 1.9–2.4 percent, anchored by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a labor market with unemployment near 4.3–4.5 percent. Recent data reinforce this outlook: Q2 growth registered 1.5 percent annualized, Q3 nowcasts hover around 2.3 percent, and leading indicators show no contraction signals. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects have tempered momentum but not derailed expansion, keeping recession odds below 25 percent in market-implied measures. Tail risks remain limited but include sharper geopolitical energy shocks, an abrupt AI capex reversal, or unexpected inflation spikes that could force tighter monetary policy and tip quarterly readings negative.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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