Recent Q2 2026 GDP revisions showed 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth (1.4% annualized), supported by resilient business investment and exports, yet private consumption remained nearly flat. Forecasters now cluster Q3 estimates around 0–0.7% annualized, citing higher crude-oil import costs from Middle East tensions, persistent yen weakness, and limited wage-driven spending gains. These factors have kept the two leading Polymarket ranges—0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6%—nearly tied, reflecting uncertainty over whether domestic demand can offset external headwinds before the November preliminary release. BOJ rate hikes and fiscal support measures add further variables to the near-term path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0.0%–0.8% 34.5%
0.8%–1.6% 31%
-0.8%–0.0% 23%
<-2.4% 6.3%
$27,280 Обс.
$27,280 Обс.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
6%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
23%
0.0%–0.8%
34%
0.8%–1.6%
31%
1.6%–2.4%
5%
2.4%–3.2%
5%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 34.5%
0.8%–1.6% 31%
-0.8%–0.0% 23%
<-2.4% 6.3%
$27,280 Обс.
$27,280 Обс.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
$604 Обс.
6%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,758 Обс.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 Обс.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,640 Обс.
23%
0.0%–0.8%
$11,253 Обс.
34%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,835 Обс.
31%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 Обс.
5%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,422 Обс.
5%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,244 Обс.
3%
4.0%+
$561 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP revisions showed 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth (1.4% annualized), supported by resilient business investment and exports, yet private consumption remained nearly flat. Forecasters now cluster Q3 estimates around 0–0.7% annualized, citing higher crude-oil import costs from Middle East tensions, persistent yen weakness, and limited wage-driven spending gains. These factors have kept the two leading Polymarket ranges—0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6%—nearly tied, reflecting uncertainty over whether domestic demand can offset external headwinds before the November preliminary release. BOJ rate hikes and fiscal support measures add further variables to the near-term path.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Обсяг
$27,280Дата завершення
Nov 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP revisions showed 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth (1.4% annualized), supported by resilient business investment and exports, yet private consumption remained nearly flat. Forecasters now cluster Q3 estimates around 0–0.7% annualized, citing higher crude-oil import costs from Middle East tensions, persistent yen weakness, and limited wage-driven spending gains. These factors have kept the two leading Polymarket ranges—0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6%—nearly tied, reflecting uncertainty over whether domestic demand can offset external headwinds before the November preliminary release. BOJ rate hikes and fiscal support measures add further variables to the near-term path.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Обсяг
$27,280Дата завершення
Nov 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP revisions showed 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth (1.4% annualized), supported by resilient business investment and exports, yet private consumption remained nearly flat. Forecasters now cluster Q3 estimates around 0–0.7% annualized, citing higher crude-oil import costs from Middle East tensions, persistent yen weakness, and limited wage-driven spending gains. These factors have kept the two leading Polymarket ranges—0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6%—nearly tied, reflecting uncertainty over whether domestic demand can offset external headwinds before the November preliminary release. BOJ rate hikes and fiscal support measures add further variables to the near-term path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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