Strava’s $2.2 billion private valuation from its May 2025 round continues to anchor trader expectations for an eventual IPO closing market cap, with the 2B–5B range capturing the bulk of probability amid a confidential S-1 filed in February 2026 that has yet to produce a priced offering. Strong 2026 mobile revenue and download growth, a large active user base exceeding 180 million, and governance additions such as former Spotify CFO Barry McCarthy on the board support potential upside multiples, yet uncertainty over subscription conversion rates, the missed spring window, and broader consumer-tech IPO sentiment keep 4B–5B and 2B–3B outcomes closely matched. Secondary trading near the last round and ongoing data-access tightening further signal readiness without fresh public metrics that could widen the spread.