Recent polls show National and Labour locked in a tight contest for the party vote ahead of the November 7 election, with support for each hovering near 28-31 percent amid elevated undecided responses and softening combined major-party totals. Incumbent National-led coalition dynamics, leadership ratings between Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins, and voter priorities on cost of living, healthcare, and the economy have kept margins narrow, while minor-party fluctuations involving the Greens, NZ First, ACT, and Opportunity further fragment the field. Traders price the highest probabilities on a sub-5 percent edge for either major party, reflecting polling volatility and the absence of decisive late-campaign separation. Scheduled debates and final policy announcements on issues such as competition policy and transport could still shift relative support before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
Labour 0-5% 26%
National 0-5% 21%
Labour 10-15% 11%
Labour 15%+ 9.0%
$20,172 Обс.
$20,172 Обс.
Oct 31, 2027
Labour 15%+
9%
Labour 10-15%
11%
Labour 5-10%
8%
Labour 0-5%
23%
National 0-5%
26%
National 5-10%
3%
National 10%+
1%
Another Party Wins
1%
Labour 0-5% 26%
National 0-5% 21%
Labour 10-15% 11%
Labour 15%+ 9.0%
$20,172 Обс.
$20,172 Обс.
Oct 31, 2027
Labour 15%+
$725 Обс.
9%
Labour 10-15%
$5,717 Обс.
11%
Labour 5-10%
$770 Обс.
8%
Labour 0-5%
$1,475 Обс.
23%
National 0-5%
$2,676 Обс.
26%
National 5-10%
$938 Обс.
3%
National 10%+
$7,467 Обс.
1%
Another Party Wins
$405 Обс.
1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polls show National and Labour locked in a tight contest for the party vote ahead of the November 7 election, with support for each hovering near 28-31 percent amid elevated undecided responses and softening combined major-party totals. Incumbent National-led coalition dynamics, leadership ratings between Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins, and voter priorities on cost of living, healthcare, and the economy have kept margins narrow, while minor-party fluctuations involving the Greens, NZ First, ACT, and Opportunity further fragment the field. Traders price the highest probabilities on a sub-5 percent edge for either major party, reflecting polling volatility and the absence of decisive late-campaign separation. Scheduled debates and final policy announcements on issues such as competition policy and transport could still shift relative support before election day.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Обсяг
$20,172Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polls show National and Labour locked in a tight contest for the party vote ahead of the November 7 election, with support for each hovering near 28-31 percent amid elevated undecided responses and softening combined major-party totals. Incumbent National-led coalition dynamics, leadership ratings between Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins, and voter priorities on cost of living, healthcare, and the economy have kept margins narrow, while minor-party fluctuations involving the Greens, NZ First, ACT, and Opportunity further fragment the field. Traders price the highest probabilities on a sub-5 percent edge for either major party, reflecting polling volatility and the absence of decisive late-campaign separation. Scheduled debates and final policy announcements on issues such as competition policy and transport could still shift relative support before election day.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Обсяг
$20,172Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show National and Labour locked in a tight contest for the party vote ahead of the November 7 election, with support for each hovering near 28-31 percent amid elevated undecided responses and softening combined major-party totals. Incumbent National-led coalition dynamics, leadership ratings between Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins, and voter priorities on cost of living, healthcare, and the economy have kept margins narrow, while minor-party fluctuations involving the Greens, NZ First, ACT, and Opportunity further fragment the field. Traders price the highest probabilities on a sub-5 percent edge for either major party, reflecting polling volatility and the absence of decisive late-campaign separation. Scheduled debates and final policy announcements on issues such as competition policy and transport could still shift relative support before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
56%
Labour
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання