Incumbent Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s consistent Republican lean, reinforced by the August 2026 primaries where he secured over 77% in a low-contention GOP contest while Jordan Herrera narrowly won a fragmented Democratic field. The district, altered by recent redistricting to include portions of Kansas City alongside rural and suburban counties, maintains a partisan tilt favoring Republicans by roughly 10 points according to major rating firms, consistent with Alford’s 71% margin in 2024. Strong fundraising, Trump administration ties, and limited recent polling shifts have solidified trader consensus around his reelection prospects on November 3. Potential disruptions remain narrow, such as an unforeseen scandal or an unusually strong Democratic national environment boosting turnout in urban pockets.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMO-04 House Election Winner
MO-04 House Election Winner
$50,168 Обс.
$50,168 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Mark Alford (R)
93%
Jordan Herrera (D)
8%
$50,168 Обс.
$50,168 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Mark Alford (R)
$32,792 Обс.
93%
Jordan Herrera (D)
$17,376 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s consistent Republican lean, reinforced by the August 2026 primaries where he secured over 77% in a low-contention GOP contest while Jordan Herrera narrowly won a fragmented Democratic field. The district, altered by recent redistricting to include portions of Kansas City alongside rural and suburban counties, maintains a partisan tilt favoring Republicans by roughly 10 points according to major rating firms, consistent with Alford’s 71% margin in 2024. Strong fundraising, Trump administration ties, and limited recent polling shifts have solidified trader consensus around his reelection prospects on November 3. Potential disruptions remain narrow, such as an unforeseen scandal or an unusually strong Democratic national environment boosting turnout in urban pockets.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$50,168Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s consistent Republican lean, reinforced by the August 2026 primaries where he secured over 77% in a low-contention GOP contest while Jordan Herrera narrowly won a fragmented Democratic field. The district, altered by recent redistricting to include portions of Kansas City alongside rural and suburban counties, maintains a partisan tilt favoring Republicans by roughly 10 points according to major rating firms, consistent with Alford’s 71% margin in 2024. Strong fundraising, Trump administration ties, and limited recent polling shifts have solidified trader consensus around his reelection prospects on November 3. Potential disruptions remain narrow, such as an unforeseen scandal or an unusually strong Democratic national environment boosting turnout in urban pockets.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$50,168Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Mark Alford holds a commanding position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district race due to the seat’s consistent Republican lean, reinforced by the August 2026 primaries where he secured over 77% in a low-contention GOP contest while Jordan Herrera narrowly won a fragmented Democratic field. The district, altered by recent redistricting to include portions of Kansas City alongside rural and suburban counties, maintains a partisan tilt favoring Republicans by roughly 10 points according to major rating firms, consistent with Alford’s 71% margin in 2024. Strong fundraising, Trump administration ties, and limited recent polling shifts have solidified trader consensus around his reelection prospects on November 3. Potential disruptions remain narrow, such as an unforeseen scandal or an unusually strong Democratic national environment boosting turnout in urban pockets.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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