Recent National Snow and Ice Data Center analyses show Arctic sea ice extent tracking toward a typical post-2010 September minimum after early-summer melt rates briefly approached 2012 levels. Persistent low-pressure systems, increased cloud cover, and cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures through August slowed ice loss, producing an August average of 5.56 million square kilometers—seventh lowest on record. This weather-driven moderation, following a low March maximum and thin first-year ice dominance, has shifted trader consensus toward the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin as the most probable outcome. NSIDC and Sea Ice Outlook estimates place the 2026 minimum near 4.6–4.8 million square kilometers, consistent with the post-2007 range of 3.99–5.68 million square kilometers. The market-implied odds reflect updated model consensus and observed melt deceleration ahead of the mid-September minimum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 78.3%
4.2-4.4m sq km 18.9%
<4m sq km 1.5%
4.0-4.2m sq km 1.4%
$78,113 Обс.
$78,113 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
2%
4.0-4.2m sq km
1%
4.2-4.4m sq km
17%
4.4-4.6m sq km
69%
4.6-4.8m sq km
1%
4.8-5m sq km
1%
5m+ sq km
<1%
4.4-4.6m sq km 78.3%
4.2-4.4m sq km 18.9%
<4m sq km 1.5%
4.0-4.2m sq km 1.4%
$78,113 Обс.
$78,113 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$33,489 Обс.
2%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$7,400 Обс.
1%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,682 Обс.
17%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$4,039 Обс.
69%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$10,207 Обс.
1%
4.8-5m sq km
$4,284 Обс.
1%
5m+ sq km
$15,013 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent National Snow and Ice Data Center analyses show Arctic sea ice extent tracking toward a typical post-2010 September minimum after early-summer melt rates briefly approached 2012 levels. Persistent low-pressure systems, increased cloud cover, and cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures through August slowed ice loss, producing an August average of 5.56 million square kilometers—seventh lowest on record. This weather-driven moderation, following a low March maximum and thin first-year ice dominance, has shifted trader consensus toward the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin as the most probable outcome. NSIDC and Sea Ice Outlook estimates place the 2026 minimum near 4.6–4.8 million square kilometers, consistent with the post-2007 range of 3.99–5.68 million square kilometers. The market-implied odds reflect updated model consensus and observed melt deceleration ahead of the mid-September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$78,113Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent National Snow and Ice Data Center analyses show Arctic sea ice extent tracking toward a typical post-2010 September minimum after early-summer melt rates briefly approached 2012 levels. Persistent low-pressure systems, increased cloud cover, and cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures through August slowed ice loss, producing an August average of 5.56 million square kilometers—seventh lowest on record. This weather-driven moderation, following a low March maximum and thin first-year ice dominance, has shifted trader consensus toward the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin as the most probable outcome. NSIDC and Sea Ice Outlook estimates place the 2026 minimum near 4.6–4.8 million square kilometers, consistent with the post-2007 range of 3.99–5.68 million square kilometers. The market-implied odds reflect updated model consensus and observed melt deceleration ahead of the mid-September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Обсяг
$78,113Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Recent National Snow and Ice Data Center analyses show Arctic sea ice extent tracking toward a typical post-2010 September minimum after early-summer melt rates briefly approached 2012 levels. Persistent low-pressure systems, increased cloud cover, and cooler high-latitude ocean temperatures through August slowed ice loss, producing an August average of 5.56 million square kilometers—seventh lowest on record. This weather-driven moderation, following a low March maximum and thin first-year ice dominance, has shifted trader consensus toward the 4.4–4.6 million square kilometer bin as the most probable outcome. NSIDC and Sea Ice Outlook estimates place the 2026 minimum near 4.6–4.8 million square kilometers, consistent with the post-2007 range of 3.99–5.68 million square kilometers. The market-implied odds reflect updated model consensus and observed melt deceleration ahead of the mid-September minimum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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