**Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy centers on a June 2026 memorandum of understanding that commits Tehran to address its enriched uranium stockpile through a mutually agreed mechanism, with a minimum approach of on-site down-blending under IAEA supervision rather than full surrender or export.** The text reaffirms Iran's non-proliferation pledge and launches 60-day talks for a final deal while maintaining the nuclear status quo and waiving certain sanctions during that window. Earlier 2025 U.S. and Israeli strikes damaged enrichment sites, leaving much of the roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched material potentially inaccessible or trapped, complicating verification. Public disputes persist over inspection timelines and whether dilution inside Iran meets U.S. demands for removal. Trader consensus around 45% probability for agreement by June 30, 2026, reflects uncertainty over whether the interim framework or any immediate follow-on steps will produce a public commitment to surrender the stockpile versus dilution or delayed resolution. Key near-term catalysts include IAEA access outcomes, final-deal negotiations, and any shifts in enforcement or regional de-escalation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMarket prices drop sharply as Iran shows no public uranium surrender agreement
December 31 plunges to 20%18%
By late June, despite earlier reports, no public agreement by Iran to surrender enriched uranium had been confirmed, leading to a collapse in market prices for all resolution dates, reflecting widespread skepticism about a deal before deadlines.
Iran agrees to transfer part of enriched uranium stockpile, likely to China
December 31 dips to 21%1%
On June 24, reports emerged that Iran agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, possibly China, as part of ongoing negotiations with the US. This partial concession was seen as a potential step toward resolving disputes but did not fully restore market confidence.


Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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