Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 80–83°F for San Francisco’s September 10 maximum, reflecting recent heatwave momentum from mid-80s to low-90s readings on September 8–9 amid offshore flow and clear skies. However, National Weather Service guidance points to a moderating marine layer and strengthening southwest sea breeze today, supporting highs near 74–77°F at downtown and airport stations. This creates divergence between model consensus and trader pricing, as microclimate variations across the city and exact timing of the peak can shift the official reading by several degrees. Historical September averages near 70.5°F and a 2017 record of 89°F provide context, but current onshore patterns and forecast updates from NOAA will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward the 76–79°F range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 10?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 10?
82-83°F 28%
80-81°F 26%
84-85°F 16%
78-79°F 11%
НОВЕ
$16,055 Обс.
НОВЕ
$16,055 Обс.
Sep 10, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
28%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
8%
88-89°F
5%
90°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 28%
80-81°F 26%
84-85°F 16%
78-79°F 11%
НОВЕ
$16,055 Обс.
НОВЕ
$16,055 Обс.
Sep 10, 2026
71°F or below
$783 Обс.
<1%
72-73°F
$738 Обс.
2%
74-75°F
$1,428 Обс.
4%
76-77°F
$1,661 Обс.
5%
78-79°F
$1,919 Обс.
11%
80-81°F
$2,440 Обс.
26%
82-83°F
$2,192 Обс.
28%
84-85°F
$1,460 Обс.
16%
86-87°F
$1,828 Обс.
8%
88-89°F
$572 Обс.
5%
90°F or higher
$1,035 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 80–83°F for San Francisco’s September 10 maximum, reflecting recent heatwave momentum from mid-80s to low-90s readings on September 8–9 amid offshore flow and clear skies. However, National Weather Service guidance points to a moderating marine layer and strengthening southwest sea breeze today, supporting highs near 74–77°F at downtown and airport stations. This creates divergence between model consensus and trader pricing, as microclimate variations across the city and exact timing of the peak can shift the official reading by several degrees. Historical September averages near 70.5°F and a 2017 record of 89°F provide context, but current onshore patterns and forecast updates from NOAA will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward the 76–79°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 8, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$16,055Дата завершення
Sep 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 7:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 80–83°F for San Francisco’s September 10 maximum, reflecting recent heatwave momentum from mid-80s to low-90s readings on September 8–9 amid offshore flow and clear skies. However, National Weather Service guidance points to a moderating marine layer and strengthening southwest sea breeze today, supporting highs near 74–77°F at downtown and airport stations. This creates divergence between model consensus and trader pricing, as microclimate variations across the city and exact timing of the peak can shift the official reading by several degrees. Historical September averages near 70.5°F and a 2017 record of 89°F provide context, but current onshore patterns and forecast updates from NOAA will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward the 76–79°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$16,055Дата завершення
Sep 10, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 8, 2026, 7:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 80–83°F for San Francisco’s September 10 maximum, reflecting recent heatwave momentum from mid-80s to low-90s readings on September 8–9 amid offshore flow and clear skies. However, National Weather Service guidance points to a moderating marine layer and strengthening southwest sea breeze today, supporting highs near 74–77°F at downtown and airport stations. This creates divergence between model consensus and trader pricing, as microclimate variations across the city and exact timing of the peak can shift the official reading by several degrees. Historical September averages near 70.5°F and a 2017 record of 89°F provide context, but current onshore patterns and forecast updates from NOAA will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward the 76–79°F range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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