Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts for Austin on September 11 indicate highs in the upper 90s to low 100s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, with light southerly winds and dew points in the low 70s sustaining heat indices above 105°F. This setup, part of a broader late-summer pattern, supports the market's tight clustering around the 98–101°F bins as the primary driver of trader sentiment. Minor model differences in cloud cover or afternoon convection introduce the main uncertainty, while historical September 11 averages near 92°F underscore the elevated baseline. Updated short-range runs and midday observations will likely narrow resolution probabilities before the close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Austin on September 11?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 11?
100-101°F 40%
98-99°F 39%
96-97°F 14%
102-103°F 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 11, 2026
87°F or below
<1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
6%
96-97°F
14%
98-99°F
39%
100-101°F
40%
102-103°F
10%
104-105°F
4%
106°F or higher
3%
100-101°F 40%
98-99°F 39%
96-97°F 14%
102-103°F 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 11, 2026
87°F or below
$35 Обс.
<1%
88-89°F
$0 Обс.
1%
90-91°F
$0 Обс.
1%
92-93°F
$85 Обс.
1%
94-95°F
$0 Обс.
6%
96-97°F
$18 Обс.
14%
98-99°F
$167 Обс.
39%
100-101°F
$1,331 Обс.
40%
102-103°F
$71 Обс.
10%
104-105°F
$8 Обс.
4%
106°F or higher
$0 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts for Austin on September 11 indicate highs in the upper 90s to low 100s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, with light southerly winds and dew points in the low 70s sustaining heat indices above 105°F. This setup, part of a broader late-summer pattern, supports the market's tight clustering around the 98–101°F bins as the primary driver of trader sentiment. Minor model differences in cloud cover or afternoon convection introduce the main uncertainty, while historical September 11 averages near 92°F underscore the elevated baseline. Updated short-range runs and midday observations will likely narrow resolution probabilities before the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 9, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,715Дата завершення
Sep 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 9, 2026, 3:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts for Austin on September 11 indicate highs in the upper 90s to low 100s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, with light southerly winds and dew points in the low 70s sustaining heat indices above 105°F. This setup, part of a broader late-summer pattern, supports the market's tight clustering around the 98–101°F bins as the primary driver of trader sentiment. Minor model differences in cloud cover or afternoon convection introduce the main uncertainty, while historical September 11 averages near 92°F underscore the elevated baseline. Updated short-range runs and midday observations will likely narrow resolution probabilities before the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,715Дата завершення
Sep 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 9, 2026, 3:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts for Austin on September 11 indicate highs in the upper 90s to low 100s under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, with light southerly winds and dew points in the low 70s sustaining heat indices above 105°F. This setup, part of a broader late-summer pattern, supports the market's tight clustering around the 98–101°F bins as the primary driver of trader sentiment. Minor model differences in cloud cover or afternoon convection introduce the main uncertainty, while historical September 11 averages near 92°F underscore the elevated baseline. Updated short-range runs and midday observations will likely narrow resolution probabilities before the close.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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