Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding position in trader assessments for first place in the Federal District’s October 2026 Senate contest, where two seats are at stake, due to consistent polling leads of roughly nine points or more over the nearest rivals in recent surveys. Late-August and early-September data from Quaest and Real Time Big Data placed her at 25–26 percent voting intention, well ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), and Bia Kicis (PL), who cluster in the low-to-mid teens; the remaining registered candidates register negligible support. Her candidacy, formalized in mid-August after internal PL deliberations, benefits from high name recognition tied to the former presidency, alignment with the party’s gubernatorial and senatorial slate, and concentrated backing among conservative voters in the district. The second seat remains more fluid, but first-place probabilities reflect the durable gap separating the frontrunner from the field.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMichelle Bolsonaro 83%
Leila do Vôlei 2.5%
Bia Kicis 1.4%
Erika Kokay 1.1%
$28,214 Обс.
$28,214 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
83%
Leila do Vôlei
3%
Bia Kicis
1%
Erika Kokay
1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
David Horn
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Marley
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 83%
Leila do Vôlei 2.5%
Bia Kicis 1.4%
Erika Kokay 1.1%
$28,214 Обс.
$28,214 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
$12,178 Обс.
83%
Leila do Vôlei
$4,157 Обс.
3%
Bia Kicis
$4,333 Обс.
1%
Erika Kokay
$2,021 Обс.
1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$794 Обс.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$801 Обс.
<1%
David Horn
$505 Обс.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$795 Обс.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$674 Обс.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$556 Обс.
<1%
Marley
$381 Обс.
<1%
Tiago
$489 Обс.
<1%
Zanata
$530 Обс.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding position in trader assessments for first place in the Federal District’s October 2026 Senate contest, where two seats are at stake, due to consistent polling leads of roughly nine points or more over the nearest rivals in recent surveys. Late-August and early-September data from Quaest and Real Time Big Data placed her at 25–26 percent voting intention, well ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), and Bia Kicis (PL), who cluster in the low-to-mid teens; the remaining registered candidates register negligible support. Her candidacy, formalized in mid-August after internal PL deliberations, benefits from high name recognition tied to the former presidency, alignment with the party’s gubernatorial and senatorial slate, and concentrated backing among conservative voters in the district. The second seat remains more fluid, but first-place probabilities reflect the durable gap separating the frontrunner from the field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$28,214Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding position in trader assessments for first place in the Federal District’s October 2026 Senate contest, where two seats are at stake, due to consistent polling leads of roughly nine points or more over the nearest rivals in recent surveys. Late-August and early-September data from Quaest and Real Time Big Data placed her at 25–26 percent voting intention, well ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), and Bia Kicis (PL), who cluster in the low-to-mid teens; the remaining registered candidates register negligible support. Her candidacy, formalized in mid-August after internal PL deliberations, benefits from high name recognition tied to the former presidency, alignment with the party’s gubernatorial and senatorial slate, and concentrated backing among conservative voters in the district. The second seat remains more fluid, but first-place probabilities reflect the durable gap separating the frontrunner from the field.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$28,214Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding position in trader assessments for first place in the Federal District’s October 2026 Senate contest, where two seats are at stake, due to consistent polling leads of roughly nine points or more over the nearest rivals in recent surveys. Late-August and early-September data from Quaest and Real Time Big Data placed her at 25–26 percent voting intention, well ahead of Leila do Vôlei (PDT), Erika Kokay (PT), and Bia Kicis (PL), who cluster in the low-to-mid teens; the remaining registered candidates register negligible support. Her candidacy, formalized in mid-August after internal PL deliberations, benefits from high name recognition tied to the former presidency, alignment with the party’s gubernatorial and senatorial slate, and concentrated backing among conservative voters in the district. The second seat remains more fluid, but first-place probabilities reflect the durable gap separating the frontrunner from the field.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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