Recent U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00 percent anchor the 64.5 percent market-implied probability of another 25 basis point increase at the October 27–28 meeting. August CPI printed 3.4 percent year-over-year with a 0.4 percent monthly gain, while core CPI held at 2.4 percent, keeping price pressures above the 2 percent goal and prompting hawkish revisions in the median dot plot. A balanced labor market at 4.1 percent unemployment and resilient growth have reinforced expectations for further tightening, with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America now forecasting consecutive hikes. The September employment report on October 2 and CPI release on October 14 remain key swing factors that could shift the 33.5 percent no-change odds before resolution.