Mike Derry holds a commanding 95% implied probability in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market due to the riding’s consistent United Conservative Party support, including a 56% share in the 2023 general election, combined with his June 2026 nomination victory over city councillor Dan McLean. The September 14 vote follows Rebecca Schulz’s May resignation, with advance polls open since September 8 and limited campaign momentum reported for NDP candidate Kyle Campbell or minor-party contenders. Traders reflect the structural advantages of incumbency and Alberta’s suburban conservative base, though outcomes could shift with unusually low turnout or late developments in the final days before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMike Derry 95%
Kyle Campbell 4.0%
John Roggeveen <1%
Kyle Joseph <1%
$21,105 Обс.
$21,105 Обс.
Sep 14, 2026
Mike Derry
95%
Kyle Campbell
4%
John Roggeveen
<1%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
Mike Derry 95%
Kyle Campbell 4.0%
John Roggeveen <1%
Kyle Joseph <1%
$21,105 Обс.
$21,105 Обс.
Sep 14, 2026
Mike Derry
$11,215 Обс.
95%
Kyle Campbell
$7,874 Обс.
4%
John Roggeveen
$1,141 Обс.
<1%
Kyle Joseph
$876 Обс.
<1%
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).Mike Derry holds a commanding 95% implied probability in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market due to the riding’s consistent United Conservative Party support, including a 56% share in the 2023 general election, combined with his June 2026 nomination victory over city councillor Dan McLean. The September 14 vote follows Rebecca Schulz’s May resignation, with advance polls open since September 8 and limited campaign momentum reported for NDP candidate Kyle Campbell or minor-party contenders. Traders reflect the structural advantages of incumbency and Alberta’s suburban conservative base, though outcomes could shift with unusually low turnout or late developments in the final days before election day.
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Обсяг
$21,105Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).Mike Derry holds a commanding 95% implied probability in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market due to the riding’s consistent United Conservative Party support, including a 56% share in the 2023 general election, combined with his June 2026 nomination victory over city councillor Dan McLean. The September 14 vote follows Rebecca Schulz’s May resignation, with advance polls open since September 8 and limited campaign momentum reported for NDP candidate Kyle Campbell or minor-party contenders. Traders reflect the structural advantages of incumbency and Alberta’s suburban conservative base, though outcomes could shift with unusually low turnout or late developments in the final days before election day.
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Обсяг
$21,105Дата завершення
Sep 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Mike Derry holds a commanding 95% implied probability in the Calgary-Shaw by-election market due to the riding’s consistent United Conservative Party support, including a 56% share in the 2023 general election, combined with his June 2026 nomination victory over city councillor Dan McLean. The September 14 vote follows Rebecca Schulz’s May resignation, with advance polls open since September 8 and limited campaign momentum reported for NDP candidate Kyle Campbell or minor-party contenders. Traders reflect the structural advantages of incumbency and Alberta’s suburban conservative base, though outcomes could shift with unusually low turnout or late developments in the final days before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання