Incumbent Democrat Dave Min advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California’s 47th district with roughly 45.5% of the vote, ahead of Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux at 25%, reflecting consolidated support in a district that nonpartisan forecasters have rated Solid or Safe Democratic. Min’s incumbency, established name recognition from his 2024 victory, and substantial fundraising edge—over $3 million raised compared with Le Roux’s roughly $375,000—have reinforced trader consensus around his commanding position. The district’s voter registration and past election patterns further favor Democratic performance in the November general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political realignments, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or turnout surges that exceed historical benchmarks, though current evidence points to limited near-term shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-47 House Election Winner
CA-47 House Election Winner
$14,137 Обс.
$14,137 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Dave Min (D)
95%
Jenny Le Roux (R)
6%
$14,137 Обс.
$14,137 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Dave Min (D)
$3,261 Обс.
95%
Jenny Le Roux (R)
$10,876 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California’s 47th district with roughly 45.5% of the vote, ahead of Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux at 25%, reflecting consolidated support in a district that nonpartisan forecasters have rated Solid or Safe Democratic. Min’s incumbency, established name recognition from his 2024 victory, and substantial fundraising edge—over $3 million raised compared with Le Roux’s roughly $375,000—have reinforced trader consensus around his commanding position. The district’s voter registration and past election patterns further favor Democratic performance in the November general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political realignments, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or turnout surges that exceed historical benchmarks, though current evidence points to limited near-term shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$14,137Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Dave Min advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California’s 47th district with roughly 45.5% of the vote, ahead of Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux at 25%, reflecting consolidated support in a district that nonpartisan forecasters have rated Solid or Safe Democratic. Min’s incumbency, established name recognition from his 2024 victory, and substantial fundraising edge—over $3 million raised compared with Le Roux’s roughly $375,000—have reinforced trader consensus around his commanding position. The district’s voter registration and past election patterns further favor Democratic performance in the November general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political realignments, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or turnout surges that exceed historical benchmarks, though current evidence points to limited near-term shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$14,137Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Dave Min advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California’s 47th district with roughly 45.5% of the vote, ahead of Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux at 25%, reflecting consolidated support in a district that nonpartisan forecasters have rated Solid or Safe Democratic. Min’s incumbency, established name recognition from his 2024 victory, and substantial fundraising edge—over $3 million raised compared with Le Roux’s roughly $375,000—have reinforced trader consensus around his commanding position. The district’s voter registration and past election patterns further favor Democratic performance in the November general election. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political realignments, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or turnout surges that exceed historical benchmarks, though current evidence points to limited near-term shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання