Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 53 percent of the vote against a divided Republican field, securing a matchup with former Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo. Tran’s substantial fundraising edge, combined with the district’s slight Democratic voter registration advantage and recent redistricting, has shaped trader consensus around his position. Forecasters rate the November general election as likely or lean Democratic. Potential shifts could stem from changes in turnout among key blocs in Orange and Los Angeles counties, national midterm dynamics, or developments on local priorities such as housing costs and affordability that influence swing voters in this competitive seat.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
$35,629 Обс.
$35,629 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Derek Tran (D)
91%
Chuong Vo (R)
9%
$35,629 Обс.
$35,629 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Derek Tran (D)
$19,878 Обс.
91%
Chuong Vo (R)
$15,751 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 53 percent of the vote against a divided Republican field, securing a matchup with former Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo. Tran’s substantial fundraising edge, combined with the district’s slight Democratic voter registration advantage and recent redistricting, has shaped trader consensus around his position. Forecasters rate the November general election as likely or lean Democratic. Potential shifts could stem from changes in turnout among key blocs in Orange and Los Angeles counties, national midterm dynamics, or developments on local priorities such as housing costs and affordability that influence swing voters in this competitive seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$35,629Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 53 percent of the vote against a divided Republican field, securing a matchup with former Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo. Tran’s substantial fundraising edge, combined with the district’s slight Democratic voter registration advantage and recent redistricting, has shaped trader consensus around his position. Forecasters rate the November general election as likely or lean Democratic. Potential shifts could stem from changes in turnout among key blocs in Orange and Los Angeles counties, national midterm dynamics, or developments on local priorities such as housing costs and affordability that influence swing voters in this competitive seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$35,629Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 53 percent of the vote against a divided Republican field, securing a matchup with former Cerritos Mayor Chuong Vo. Tran’s substantial fundraising edge, combined with the district’s slight Democratic voter registration advantage and recent redistricting, has shaped trader consensus around his position. Forecasters rate the November general election as likely or lean Democratic. Potential shifts could stem from changes in turnout among key blocs in Orange and Los Angeles counties, national midterm dynamics, or developments on local priorities such as housing costs and affordability that influence swing voters in this competitive seat.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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