Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District after winning the June 2026 primary with endorsements from retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul, and significant support from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The Manhattan-based district has ranked among the most Democratic in the country for decades, with registration advantages exceeding six-to-one and a consistent record of delivering large margins for Democratic candidates. Caroline Shinkle, the uncontested Republican nominee, faces structural barriers typical of the seat’s partisan composition. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district’s historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive general-election dynamics. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, though such factors have rarely overcome the seat’s entrenched lean in recent cycles.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,897 Vol.
$32,897 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
97%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
<1%
$32,897 Vol.
$32,897 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
$17,262 Vol.
97%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
$15,635 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District after winning the June 2026 primary with endorsements from retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul, and significant support from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The Manhattan-based district has ranked among the most Democratic in the country for decades, with registration advantages exceeding six-to-one and a consistent record of delivering large margins for Democratic candidates. Caroline Shinkle, the uncontested Republican nominee, faces structural barriers typical of the seat’s partisan composition. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district’s historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive general-election dynamics. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, though such factors have rarely overcome the seat’s entrenched lean in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,897Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District after winning the June 2026 primary with endorsements from retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul, and significant support from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The Manhattan-based district has ranked among the most Democratic in the country for decades, with registration advantages exceeding six-to-one and a consistent record of delivering large margins for Democratic candidates. Caroline Shinkle, the uncontested Republican nominee, faces structural barriers typical of the seat’s partisan composition. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district’s historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive general-election dynamics. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, though such factors have rarely overcome the seat’s entrenched lean in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,897Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District after winning the June 2026 primary with endorsements from retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, Governor Kathy Hochul, and significant support from former Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The Manhattan-based district has ranked among the most Democratic in the country for decades, with registration advantages exceeding six-to-one and a consistent record of delivering large margins for Democratic candidates. Caroline Shinkle, the uncontested Republican nominee, faces structural barriers typical of the seat’s partisan composition. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district’s historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive general-election dynamics. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health event, or unexpected national political shift could theoretically alter the trajectory, though such factors have rarely overcome the seat’s entrenched lean in recent cycles.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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