Traders assign a 97.4% probability to “No” on the Nord Stream pipelines delivering commercial volumes of Russian gas to Germany or the EU by December 31, 2026, reflecting the combined impact of extensive physical damage from the 2022 sabotage, EU sanctions that explicitly prohibit use of the lines, and Germany’s sustained policy against reactivation. Three of the four strings remain inoperable after seawater intrusion, with any full repair estimated to require roughly 36 months once design, permitting, procurement, and contractor mobilization begin—work that has not started. Russia has instead moved toward sealing and mothballing the damaged sections, while Europe has diversified supplies through LNG imports and alternative routes. The intact Nord Stream 2 line also stays offline under sanctions and certification barriers. A sudden policy reversal in Berlin or Brussels, coupled with rapid sanctions relief, would still face these technical and procedural timelines, leaving little realistic path to commercial flow before 2027.