Traders assign a 95.9% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because Beijing’s recent actions emphasize sustained gray-zone pressure rather than preparations for a complex amphibious campaign. Since June, China Coast Guard vessels have conducted regular patrols east of Taiwan, alongside research ship activity, while PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ have declined from prior peaks. These steps normalize presence and assert jurisdictional claims without crossing into kinetic conflict. Full-scale invasion faces steep logistical, economic, and escalation risks, including potential U.S. intervention and global supply-chain disruption, and Beijing shows no fixed timetable. A narrow window remains for sudden shifts from diplomatic breakdowns, such as the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, or major miscalculations, though current evidence points to continued coercion short of war.