Heightened Houthi control over Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, including the September 10–11 seizure of Mokha port, Perim Island, and Hanish islands, has elevated war-risk premiums to 0.5–1.0% of hull value and prompted continued rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Tracking data show Bab el-Mandeb commodity-vessel transits averaging roughly 21–27 per day in mid-September, well below the 2023 baseline near 61, with daily counts such as 21 on September 14 and 22 the following day. Partial Suez service resumptions by carriers including Cosco and Maersk have lifted some volumes but remain limited amid ongoing threats, producing the market’s 70.5% implied probability on fewer than 170 weekly transits. Elevated insurance costs and selective dark-transit behavior by tankers further suppress visible traffic ahead of any potential de-escalation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
<170 70%
190-209 9%
210-229 7%
170-189 5%
$14,003 Vol.
$14,003 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<170
70%
170-189
9%
190-209
9%
210-229
7%
230+
3%
<170 70%
190-209 9%
210-229 7%
170-189 5%
$14,003 Vol.
$14,003 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<170
$5,680 Vol.
70%
170-189
$2,746 Vol.
9%
190-209
$2,731 Vol.
9%
210-229
$1,367 Vol.
7%
230+
$1,479 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi control over Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, including the September 10–11 seizure of Mokha port, Perim Island, and Hanish islands, has elevated war-risk premiums to 0.5–1.0% of hull value and prompted continued rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Tracking data show Bab el-Mandeb commodity-vessel transits averaging roughly 21–27 per day in mid-September, well below the 2023 baseline near 61, with daily counts such as 21 on September 14 and 22 the following day. Partial Suez service resumptions by carriers including Cosco and Maersk have lifted some volumes but remain limited amid ongoing threats, producing the market’s 70.5% implied probability on fewer than 170 weekly transits. Elevated insurance costs and selective dark-transit behavior by tankers further suppress visible traffic ahead of any potential de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,003Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi control over Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, including the September 10–11 seizure of Mokha port, Perim Island, and Hanish islands, has elevated war-risk premiums to 0.5–1.0% of hull value and prompted continued rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Tracking data show Bab el-Mandeb commodity-vessel transits averaging roughly 21–27 per day in mid-September, well below the 2023 baseline near 61, with daily counts such as 21 on September 14 and 22 the following day. Partial Suez service resumptions by carriers including Cosco and Maersk have lifted some volumes but remain limited amid ongoing threats, producing the market’s 70.5% implied probability on fewer than 170 weekly transits. Elevated insurance costs and selective dark-transit behavior by tankers further suppress visible traffic ahead of any potential de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$14,003Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 20, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x69c47De9D...Heightened Houthi control over Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, including the September 10–11 seizure of Mokha port, Perim Island, and Hanish islands, has elevated war-risk premiums to 0.5–1.0% of hull value and prompted continued rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Tracking data show Bab el-Mandeb commodity-vessel transits averaging roughly 21–27 per day in mid-September, well below the 2023 baseline near 61, with daily counts such as 21 on September 14 and 22 the following day. Partial Suez service resumptions by carriers including Cosco and Maersk have lifted some volumes but remain limited amid ongoing threats, producing the market’s 70.5% implied probability on fewer than 170 weekly transits. Elevated insurance costs and selective dark-transit behavior by tankers further suppress visible traffic ahead of any potential de-escalation.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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